go on Euan!

I think some simplistic approach like "what time is it when there is as much left as you have used" bartlett style is called for

the impression from the BBC website site is muddled thinking.

it will be hard to get the average viewer to understand that decreasing the depletion rate with increased effort means an inevitable increased inflexion and increased depletion rate... falling off a cliff

perhaps others have ideas on conveying this more now=less later idea

good luck

Boris
London

suggest that the UK may produce as much oil in the next 40 years as it has done in the last 30 years is irresponsible pipe dream

You could argue, if put to you that even if your wrong and this estimate is correct the profile of production will not follow a flat plateau or rise until all the oil is gone.

aside from being irresponsible even if correct they basically admit to peak!

it makes no difference

Boris
London

My jaw dropped in disbelief as I heard this discussed on Radio 4 this morning.

A quick back-of the envelope calculation reveals that the extra 30 billion barrels they're talking about is equivalent to around one year's global oil consumption.

It's too much to ask reporters these days to do simple arithmetic.

Or even to consider multiple factors at the same time.

There was NO mention at all in that "news" report this morning of climate change and the need to drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption.

The BBC is making a habit of this, decoupling oil from climate change at every opportunity.

cheers

Boris
London

Thanks,
But on the terrestrial tele-visual device, you have set up schedules this way:

Truth and Lies - 22:45 TO 23:45.

Newsnight Scotland : 23:00 +

Wasn't deliberate was it :-)

IF you are in the UK, or know how to get around the geo limits.

Pity its not on prime time across the UK - then maybe there would be less ill informed comments - from the public and TV talking heads alike.

To: Daniel Maxwell, BBC Newsnight Scotland.

Sir.

My heartfealt apologies and thankyou from the bottom of my heart for your extremely well presented piece.

Your cute little blonde put forth a superb piece. I can only look forward to my grand children finding a lucrative and life-long career in the oil industry.

Furthermore, I am most grateful that you corralled Skrebowski and Mearns onto a minority report slot on another channel at the same time.

Words cannot express my gratitude. My wife admires your bravery and vision.

Is there any possiblity that Professor Odell could be given a weekly slot on Newsnight Scotland?

You see, I wish to sell my house, down size , cash out. I need all the help I can get between now and 2012.

That Sir, is my plan. I would sell this year, but the credit crunch has severely dented the market. However, your piece tonight , plus (I hope) other programmes starring Odell will enable me to offload my house to some poor sucker before it all goes pear-shaped. And leave me with a tidy sum for my dotage.(or my Widows dotage).

I cannot express my delight any more than I have. Please continue the good works - at least until the brief rebound in the housing market in 2011.

That way, I can leave the table with a few chips.

Bravo Sir, Bravo.

A word of warning - Newsnight Scotland is only available on BBC Iplayer for 1 day vs 7 days for Newsnight England! You'll need to view it within next 6 hours.

On R4 this morning I heard the chief exec. of the BWEA being interviewed and she proudly stated that 33 gw of wind capacity is half the uk requirement. Numbers are wonderful things, misunderstanding them is something else!
The subject was about releasing more Crown Estate coast line, which would extend potential wind capcity to 33 GW from the 15 or so GW proposed for 2020.

One of the talking heads "gets it" (I'm paraphrasing here)

"The crunch will come in 2010, plus or minus 2 years... You have to look at the flow rates... beyond 2011, the flow rates go down"

That was Leggett, the only talking head worth listing to on the programme. He was badly introduced though, she said he was an environmentalist and head of the country's largest solar power company. All true - but she omitted to mention his background in petroleum geology as a faculty member at Imperial College working on source rocks for Shell and BP... Why not mention his background in geology and oil?

Yes, that amused me too.

However, if memory serves me right, it was that impressive gothic structure, the Scott Monument he mentioned.

I really enjoyed the historical footage, hearing the politicians and civil servants talk and the music - including clips of Edinburgh's finest, the Bay City Rollers (!), but the impression given to the viewer was very misleading.

Jeremy Legget's comments were spot on, but taken completely out of context.

I live in Leith, and was alarmed to see spaghetti start snaking through my letterbox last night.

Damn you BBC Scotland!

Interesting comment.

It is possible for most of the Norwegian fields (based upon NPD data) to plot how fast the first 50 % of recoverable oil was produced (or extracted) and how much time it takes (or will take) to recover the last 50 % and this will also suggest how price sensitive the last part is.

You would think they could at least look at the government's own projections here:
https://www.og.berr.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/chapters/production_pr...

The graph on page 5 tell's its own story.

Chris and Euan were sincere, academic and forthright as you would expect. A little nervous, but what the hell. Sincere forthright academics dont give good face.

Odell : Well, what can I say? . A mummified economist. A dangerous liar at best.

I intended to tape the bimbo and watch newsnight, but decided it wasnt worth the electrons. Watched Newsnight and switched back to the bimbo.

The bimbo came up to expectations wrt the piece in the Sunday Times Eccosse section.

Expect no questions in the house.

For my money?

Peak was declared in the UK tonight.

Sad bit?

It interviewed people who do know better. But if there is a pay cheque involved people will believe in Atlantis.

Still...

not every night that PO gets full billing. Who here would believe that two years ago?

Simmons was right.

2008.

they also repeated the recently discovered “fact” that the North Sea has almost as much oil left as has already been produced

I think this sort of statement is huge easy to hit target . A person making such a remark can be humiliated and made to look a total fool... and should be.

when these sort of statements pop up the response should be...

" I would like to comment on the statement in the piece you showed..etc"

and have devastating rebuttals on hand.

when ever the opportunity to comment on such thinking arises.. it must be crushed mercilessly

preferably with memorable comic delivery

Boris
london

Hi Euan,

always good to see what others look like -perhaps we could get an image clip into the bio section of TOD?

There's a pic of me in my "Peak Oil Joining The Dots" document here (it was my attempt at 'simplifying for the masses'):
http://www.megatrends2020.com/Peak_Oil__Joining_The_Dots.doc

Have you found any good info / predictions on what oil/gas decline is going to do to the UK (e.g. balance of payments)?

Nick.

What clean burning techniques are those?
No-one knows how to do it outside of a laboratory.
Widespread adaption of this is about as far off as fusion is.
What we actually know how to do build fission reactors - France has run it;s grid mainly on that for years.

The idiocy starts with the notion of "how long will it last" and "running out"

anybody using such questions basically doesn't understand the problem.

when analysts say this sort of thing and some numpty comes along and says "see no problem" they have placed themselves in the "haven't got a clue" camp

its not just the false projections on the amount of oil that need refuting but the actual mode of argument.. given their own numbers they are idiots.

take reserve growth.... right.. well first off to the layman its just a minefield of misinformation. Do you argue trying to wrestle with with all the different standards of reserve booking and backdating

or do you just side step the whole nonsense for the sake of simplicity.

just pointing out that reserves only "grow" on paper and the amount of oil in the ground only decreases with production. the thing that really "grows" from a production POV is our ability to pull it out of the ground. reserve booking creates the impression there is "somehow" more oil

the amount of oil in the ground is the amount of oil in the ground.. thats something your average joe can get.. now I know for all you technically aware dudes you going to talk URR and all that but you need to dumb down yet remain insightful

if your talking to the man on the street you need to slice through this reserve issue with an axe and just stop the argument in its tracks..

basically as soon as someone says "reserves" on one of these talking head shows or articles they need to be taken out and shot in the back of the head

Odell is an absolute shocker

Boris
London

I am wondering if the BBC is operating outside of it's charter here.
They have presented on outlier of reserves in the North Sea as the central forecast in the radio program, and worked off the back of that in the Newsnight program - a good technique to avoid proper examination of the premises, especially if they are on at the same time.
I did not hear the radio broadcast, but it is my understanding that they did not explain that by the Government's own reckoning reserves of this size were unlikely, as are prices of $40-50/barrel.

I'd love to know and we will all know for sure in 2-3 years - 'may you live in interesting times' - cursed indeed.

My response to the Daily Mail :

>>This piece cannot go unanswered.
The UKCS peaked in 1999 and has fallen since. All of the major finds in the UKCS have followed typical production profiles and all are now producing oil at significantly lower rates of production. It is typical of an Oil Province to find and produce the larger fields first. This was true of the North Sea with such finds as Forties, Ninian, Brent and Magnus. New finds and new technology applied to mature and depleted fields cannot offset the depletion curve that impacts overall UK production and consequently, UK overall production will fall year on year. This fall in production is irreversible.
There may be minor new fields here and there. There may be a few fields in the Atlantic Margin, but to quote Odell and believe that there may be 30 billion additional barrels of reserves is frankly madness. The UK as an oil province has passed peak. So too has Norway , Denmark and Holland. It will be more or less over for the UKCS by 2025.<<

Wade in as you see fit.

This whole strategy starting with the Sunday Times Article by Millar and culminating in last nights agitpropoganda is new and disturbing.

then they are villains

what is Odell's motivation.. his he corrupt? or on some weird ego trip?

Boris
London

My impression of regional TV programming is that it always carries the message "Hey, what a great region we live in!", with the implied message "it's better than those other regions".

I didn't see the "Lies...." program, but it sounds true to form.

Hello Chris,

interesting to see how production (in the diagram) grows with the growth of the oil price as from the fall of 2004.

And one more thing - not a whisper about CO2 emissions.

The Scottish Govt has pledged to cut CO2 emissions 80% by 2050, but if they allow companies to extract all this oil then there's a good chance someone's going to burn it.

Why do they take responsibility for CO2 emitted in Scotland, but no responsibility at all for emissions from the fossil fuels they extract? It's hardly an unrelated issue - why did it not even merit a mention?

Why did you schedule the two to appear on at the same time. Not you personally, but the BBC?

The Truth, Lies and Scotlands Oil was one of the most biased pieces of jounalism the Beeb has ever put out.

It is astonishing that you give credit to Odell.

The man was pedalling abiotic oil as late as 2003 in the Telegraph.

Last night may cause great and lasting damage to an understanding of the reality of the UK position with respect to oil depletion and ultimately the fate of Scotland - inside or outside of the UK.

Stick around, you and your colleagues may learn something here.

I look forward to some investigative journalism on the real situation facing the UK.

The BBC failed in its remit to tell the truth last night.

Thanks for joining in the discussion.
I think it is fair to say that most here found some of your questioning to the point, especially when you asked if speculation was the cause of the price rises, what was happening to the oil?
Many also remarked that you had obviously been reading up on the issue.
The problem then is not with your presentation.
It is with the assumptions which lay behind the program and especially the radio program.
The BBC has a duty to try to convey a balanced viewpoint.
It was nowhere made clear that oil was being produced at half the volume as at peak, that there is now a large deficit and that the augmentations of existing fields are comparatively tiny.
Also the Governments own projections of likely future extraction from the North Sea was ignored, in favour of a wildly optimistic projection of as much oil remaining as has already been extracted.
The chances of that are vanishingly small, the costs huge.
So the overall impression given by the programs were entirely misleading.
We accept that the issues have to be presented for a more general interest non-expert audience, but the balance of likely resources was wildly skewed.
Perhaps you would call the same participants back in a years time, and see how their predictions have fared.
You might ask the optimists where the oil is.
No-one in the media who always refer to the head of CERA as an expert has ever called him to account for his completely inaccurate predictions.

Gordon - thanks for joining the discussion and also thank you to the BBC for inviting me to speak yesterday.

But as you guys are probably more aware than most, this is a very complicated area and it's difficult to present in a simple way to a TV audience.

This is spot on. Personally I thought you did a very good job and was actually quite impressed by your level of insight to this complex subject - which has no definitive answer. I'd be interested in Chris Skrebowski's views on this. My own performance was more questionable and whilst I think I looked serious enough and sounded OK - what I chose to say could have been a lot better. But hey, that was my first time (apart from TV Italia) and the circumstances are a bit unusual to say the least - sitting in a room "alone" with a camera, lights, ear piece and microphone.

The scheduling was rather unfortunate. I've not yet seen Hayley Millar's documentary. I watched the first 15 mins in the foyer of the BBC in Aberdeen and caught snipits when I got home. This combined with the web presentations does suggest to me that this was a very poor portrayal of reality and I will email Hayley copying in whoever else I can at the BBC making key points. I can't find this program on the ipalyer - how do I get a copy?

The comments on this thread are mixing the two programs, one which I thought was fair and the other which seems may have been not so good.

Whilst talking about the iplayer it is rather unfortunate that you have to reside in the UK to watch these web-based archives. Why? (one for the lords of the BBC) The Oil Drum has a global audience and I believe a large % of readers work in academia, finance or media and would be interested in this material.

High energy prices and energy depletion (UK and global) are not problems that are going to go away IMO. This will be a Long Emergency. The situation with UK, European and Global natural gas supplies is potentially more critical than oil. These are problems that will affect us all and so I hope the BBC continues to cover the subject with increasing frequency and in increasing detail and rigor.

Brian Wilson IMO has one of the best overviews of UK energy of any former senior politician. In fact he seems to have greater knowledge of this subject that the collective Brown cabinet. David Strahan, former broadcaster, is also knowledgeable. Thus I will definitely tune in tonight to listen.

Later this evening (or tomorrow morning) I will post proper answers here to your questions that I feel could have answered better yesterday.

All the best,

Euan

Gordon,

On point 2) I'd say that showing a graph on the telly screen with the UK's oil production profile pretty much wraps it up. Goes up; peaks; declines.

I haven't seen the programme yet, but having Euan there was a sort of a milestone for TOD:E. Thanks, and keep showing up, you're input is quite welcome.

Better tonight on Newsnight Scotland.

Wilson and Strahern came across well.

NOW:

Work up a riposte to the egregious Odell and the ridiculous Kemp on Truth , lies and Oil.

Gordon - the answers I should have given:

You asked if I agreed with what Chris Skrebowski had to say:

"yes"

But to make it more interesting I picked up on what was a slip of the tongue by Chris when he said that we were in the foot hills of peak oil. We are in fact on plateau or close to peak - I'm pretty sure Chris agrees with that.

How can I say that? you ask.

Well climbing a hill alone in a fog of incomplete data, miss-information, government propaganda, corporate propaganda and international insecurity it is tricky to know when you reach the top.

Global Total Liquids production and oil price, January 2002 to present. Production data from the IEA, data files supplied by Rembrandt Koppelaar. Monthly average WTI oil prices from Economagic.

Since 2004 the gradient of the slope has changed (tricky to convey that without a graphic). What's more, much of the growth in supply is now LNG, ethanol and syncrude. Where we once produced malt whiskies we are now producing alcho pops.

The flattening of the slope at a time of escalating price seems to be a clear signal that we are proximal to peak. But the inventory of mega projects in the pipeline adds uncertainty, hence no responsible peak oiler will want to call peak just yet - since Crying Wolf does untold harm.

The change in gradient of the slope is due to OPEC spare capacity falling to zero - which is the point I tried to convey.

---------

Can I provide a 4th reason for the recent run up in oil prices?:

Well the oil price has in fact been rising exponentially since around 2002 - with a curious excursion down late 2006 - from which the price is still recovering. I see little unusual about the recent run up in price since it is a continuation of this exponential trend caused by demand running ahead of constrained supply.

But if you are wanting more reasons:

On the supply side, Russian oil production has now been falling for around 6 months. THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE. Russia is the most important provider of imported energy to Europe (oil and natural gas). Their falling oil production in the 1990s led to / resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since 2000 their oil production recovered but is now maybe showing signs of peaking. Russia is one of the worlds largest oil producers and exporters and if the trend of falling production continues we are in deep trouble.

The OECD has virtually no control over the oil supply side but we could have control over demand for oil if we wanted to. Governments could and should be legislating on energy efficiency across the board to reduce demand. Reducing demand for oil will lead to the price coming down. Doing this in a proactive positive way is different to allowing high price to destroy demand - which is what is happening now - and this will lead to widespread energy poverty throughout poor countries and throughout poor people in rich countries.

But no, instead of doing all they can to conserve energy the UK Government is pro-active in building roads and supporting the expansion of all our major air ports - hence stimulating demand for oil - and so they must share the blame for the current situation.

In the coming years you will likely be covering stories of old folks in Glasgow freezing to death in winter either because they cannot afford their power bills or because the electricity is off. You probably have no idea how precarious our electric grid is, increasingly dependent on natural gas the supply of which is more precarious than oil.

This is a model I have been working on for many months now for UK natural gas supplies - I like making simple charts:-)

I was getting excellent support from BERR in constructing this model which is not yet published since there's just not enough hours in the day. This is provisional unaudited work in progress. A few years back we were gas exporters - the yellow is the gas we will need to import in future. Will we be able to source all this gas? How will we pay for it?

PS - the unfounded rumor of a pending US strike on Iran is the likely cause of the $7 run up in the oil price yesterday.

I thought your programme was very good, in stark contrast to "Truth, Lies Oil and Scotland". It would be great if you could engage Hayley Millar about this issue. She had clearly done quite a bit of research for the programme but despite that missed the concept of flow rates completely. Does she understand the nature of the debate between the cornucopians and the peakists?

Any chance of getting more on UK-wide TV? Jeremy Paxman and John Humphries both appear to 'get' peak oil to some extent, judging from interviews and broadcasts they have given in the last year.

Good,

as a state-registered glutton , I look forward to it.

It will be interesting to hear Brian Wilson's response. Last time he was in my local pub, He had a deeper understanding of Peak Oil and Energy issues than would appear from his public persona. (a lot of people round here have more than a laymans interest).

Think long and hard about the story you want to tell in the coming years.

The common weal may hang in the balance on it.

Think on.

The BBC has a duty of care. - And that involves enlightenment and truth.

I thought you did ok and its not your role to make the argument so to speak

but..... there lies the problem.. you have to understand this issue to allow the debate and presentation to be balanced

and I can see how this is a dilemma for the impartial holy cows of broadcast journalism because essentially once you "get it" your bias towards... well the truth!

thats a real square peg in a round hole situation you have on your hands there.

Having Odell up on screen even as a clip is pretty much equivalent to debating history with David Icke on one side and AJP taylor on the other and giving them both equal billing.

I don't envy your position but the weight on your shoulders on this absurdly unreported issue is .. is what? .. well the phrase "of monumental world importance" is not an understatement

we need to revisit this issue with an in depth probe of the cornucopian position and their motivations to paint a rosy picture.. every one likes a tale of lies and deciet...

well their you go

there is a trail of absurdity and denial going back to Hubbert and the USGS in the early 60's through to the great OPEC reserve debacle of the 80's and onto to simmons calling aramco out at CSIS in 2003

at which point the abiotic oil thing appeared all over the net

you guys are the journalists you join the dots...

why does a man like Odell get awards from OPEC?

there's a story

Boris
London

Tonight's show was great. The contrast between Wilson today and Wicks yesterday is quite incredible. I was at a peak oil conference in 2005 where Wilson was very wishy-washy on peak oil. Now he's clear. It's such a shame he can only speak the truth in retirement and his successor Wicks, feels he can't whilst still in office.

Keep up the good work Gordon, you are breaking vital new ground raising the profile of peak oil. You can count on The Oil Drum to assist with any future research and support.

Hi Gordon, thanks for joining in.

I'm not an Oil Drum regular, but I think Wednesday night's programme covered the issues pretty well. It's a shame it's disappeared from iPlayer so others can't judge for themselves (the audio is still here).

My main complaint would be (as Euan has admitted above) that the contributors didn't really address your questions. While the points they made were interesting and relevant to the issue, I think the resulting discussion would have been difficult for the uninitiated to follow.

I expect Thursday night's show will be less contentious to this forum, though I would like to have seen a more adversarial debate. Kemp v Mearns, anyone?

By the way, it would be great if you could encourage someone from the TLOS documentary to engage with this forum.

Gordon, you're a brammer to note the substantive analyses published here, and to offer your thoughts and views on the topic. All too often, journalists are over-worked and cannot devote enough time to the myriad subjects they must cover. Your ken of the peak oil problem and your attention to this subject is a positive reflection on your understanding of Scotland's (and indeed the world's) true priorities. Of course, if Odell suggests himself for the show, I'd tell him "awa an bile yer heid, nyaff". It was nice, though, to see Euan boo tae a goose, yahoorsur.

When one of the contributors to a documentary feels the need to rip it apart in a national newspaper the next day you know the film makers did something wrong!

Joe Lynam is the wonderful economics 'expert' they have coming out with this tripe.

EDIT: Lynam is the guy who feels that prices rise no more than demand increases.
It was a different idiot who thinks that rising unemployment increases oil prices.

I have already contacted the BBC - perhaps others would care to do so, so that he can enthral us all with his explanation of why rising unemployment should be one of the causes of oil prices jumping, and why demand has to double to cause prices to double.

Here's the audio for both debates

Peak Oil Debate Part 1: Mearns/Skrebowski/Jamieson
Peak Oil Debate Part 2: Strahan/Wilson