The growth in China's oil consumption has taken everybody by surprise, particularly the International Energy Agency, which had predicted a growth rate of about 1/4 as much as actually happened.

Yes, at the rate China is going, it will be consuming more oil than the US in another decade. The Chinese are aware of the developing problems and are buying up as much of the world's oil reserves as they can. They are also stockpiling uranium for the new reactors they are going to build, and developing coal facilities in Australia.

However, China is now the world's largest car market. General Motors is now selling more cars in China than the United States. It bodes ill for other people who depend on cheap oil.

Probably around 60 to 120.

-best,

Wolf

I think Matt Mushalik gave us part of the answer a few days ago. That very high prices did not result in increased production is an indication that we're either there or near there.

No more are required. Peak happened, I don't understand why people just won't accept the obvious and move on to other important topics.

Can we acertain that the OPEC spike is their shut in capacity ?

If this were the case it would mean that their actual unused production capacity were less than their claimed unused production capacity by a considerable margin.

July '08 to Feb '10 I've got 1354.77 kb/d shut-in from KSA. Forget what the rest of putative OPEC capacity is supposed to be now. Rest of spare capacity numbers from EIAIEIA is from megaprojectz like Khurais. Add grain of NaCl to your assay there. Check JODI to get most precise numbers on current consumption levels.

Top 10 YOY gains for May 2010:

China
United States of America
Canada
India
Iraq
Mexico
Malaysia
Germany
Indonesia
Japan
Saudi Arabia

Top 10 YOY contractors for May 2010:

Singapore
Chinese Taipei
France
Spain
Korea
South Africa
Italy
Turkey
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Egypt (Arab Rep.)

Gains outweigh losses by 1375.18 kb/d. Average that out and yes, we will burn through bona fide shut in capacity in a couple of years, barring a double dip.

Saudi Arabia has wanted to switch to natural gas and even brought in outside developers to help. But apparently they have not had much success discovering and developing natural gas only fields.

Yeah, try telling that to all those who used to work in those places.

Here's a chart of Japan's consumption by individual petroleum product, 1984-2008, plus the 2009 total (only value available from EIA at the moment):

Here is the same data, but from BP - their series goes back to 1965, but only breaks down to four streams:

Note how the only stream they really cut back on 30 years ago was (residual) fuel oil, used for power generation. Gains in fuel efficiency of automobiles only obtained for about 8 years and were quite marginal compared to phasing out burning oil for electricity.

Japan has about the higest percentage of old aged population, plus they have been in a depression since 1990. The two are probably related.

Do y'all need to be reminded how often it had been predicted here that non-OPEC was past peak? When non-OPEC reaches a new record (could be there already, for all we know), I expect a big fat thread here on TOD telling the world, "We were dead wrong." :P

Have you ever seen Colin Campbell say that about his 1989-1990 peak oil prediction? Do you honestly think that if the grandfather of the modern peaker movement can play kick the can for a few decades, that random internet blogs can't play the same game?

If I remember rightly (from Downeys 'Oil 101') then it is just different source blends into the final mix at refining and the energy content will be no different.

If you are asking about end-to-end efficiency (well-to-wheels) then this is far too complex a question for me. Someone else here I am sure can talk about total EROI perhaps, but I imagine most of these are theoretical models and are not empirical results.

Singular, monthly lows and highs can be created by all sorts of unsustainable factors from weather to the restoration of previously shut-in production. What matters instead are the annual averages.

Agreed Gregor on annual averages. Since those average highs, there has been the real estate bubble bursting mortgage meltdown with the 147 a barrel oil spike and stock market crash. What we now see is a consistently high price for oil coupled with minimal economic growth. What appears most glaring, is the inability for govt. at all levels to keep up with day to day costs, which puts the repair and replacement of infrastructure farther out into the future. A future that will only be exacerbated by dwindling oil supply.

I don't see huge increases in the price of oil, but rather a steady high price at the pressure point of causing recession. That is until the supply crunch hits.

Singular, monthly lows and highs can be created by all sorts of unsustainable factors from weather to the restoration of previously shut-in production. What matters instead are the annual averages.

Agreed Gregor on annual averages. Since those average highs, there has been the real estate bubble bursting mortgage meltdown with the 147 a barrel oil spike and stock market crash. What we now see is a consistently high price for oil coupled with minimal economic growth. What appears most glaring, is the inability for govt. at all levels to keep up with day to day costs, which puts the repair and replacement of infrastructure farther out into the future. A future that will only be exacerbated by dwindling oil supply.

I don't see huge increases in the price of oil, but rather a steady high price at the pressure point of causing recession. That is until the supply crunch hits.

What I'd like to know: How does this translate into the future course of GDP?

To put it another way: Will the weak recovery halt some time in the next 12 months due to oil supply constraints? Can the economy manage to grow for a couple of years without an increase in oil consumption? Or will declining oil availability (rather than flat availability) cause a further economic decline?

More succinctly: How soon does it get much worse?