IMO, Peak Oilers need to focus more on the volume of exported oil worldwide, rather than on total oil supplies. Following is a copy of a post I made on a different article:

With some exceptions, such as Matt Simmons, and some prior work that Nate turned up, almost everyone in Peak Oil circles had been assuming that a simple low digit exponential decline rate was the worst case. For example, it would take about 36 years for production to fall by 50%, assuming a -2%/year production decline rate.

What we (Khebab & Brown) have been endeavoring to show is that a far greater threat is the net export decline resulting from production falling at an exponential rate and consumption increasing at a generally exponential rate. To help me understand what happens, I proposed the simplistic Export Land Model (ELM), which stipulates a country consuming half of its production at final peak, with a -5%/year production decline rate and a +2.5%/year rate of increase in consumption. Here are the initial and final annual net export decline rates for the ELM (final year is last year of net oil exports):

Year One: -14%/year
Year Eight: -61%/year

At their final production peaks, the UK and Indonesia were consuming about half of their production. Here are the initial and final annual net export decline rates for the UK and Indonesia (EIA data):

UK:
2000: -38%/year
2005: -237%/year

Indonesia:
1997: -16%/year
2003: -73%/year

And of course, if consumption increases fast enough, a former net exporter can become a net oil importer, even as their production increases, e.g., the US and China. Here are annual net export decline rates for China, from their start of their net export decline to their final year of net oil exports:

1986: -5%/year
1992: -57%year

All of this is of course pretty elementary, but it is an elementary fact that massively overlooked worldwide. Regarding terminology, I am simply describing the rate of change in net oil exports the same way that the rate of change in production and the rate of change in consumption are calculated.

Note that the production decline rate and rate of increase in consumption were constant for the ELM (-5%/year and +2.5%/year respectively), for both Year One and for Year Eight, but the net export decline rate went from -14%year to -61%/year:

Year One:
Production: -5%/year
Consumption: +2.5%year
Net Exports: -14%/year

Year Eight:
Production: -5%/year
Consumption: +2.5%year
Net Exports: -61%/year

Nate and I are planning on attending, as are several of the European Oil Drum staff. I haven't seen the exact list.

I am sure it will be an event to remember!

Ahhhh, it's starting to smell like the 90's again, the stock market on the rebound, a smart young democrat in the Whitehouse (o.k., so he's not a southerner, but he's got the gift of gab)and people jetting around the world to the beauty spots for conferences (o.k., not everybody, but the one's with money enough to do it, and that's the way the world's supposed to work, right? ;-)

You folks have a great time, and when the airliner begins it's descent to the airport, do a favor for me...close you eyes, relax and SAVOR the age we were born in and be thankful for however long it may last. The technicians who are the great artists of this age along with the bankers, the managers, the dreamers the schemers and the con men have made a realm of experience possible to us that our forefathers could not even have dreamed possible, not even a thousand years from their death. Has it all been worth it? Is it worth trying to preserve? Each one of us will have to be our own judge as to what is valuable and what is meaningful.

I can't afford to go to Italy, so I will think of you folks while I am at the vintage sportscar races at Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin this summer. A waste? Judge as you will. I also hope to make a trip to Cincinnati to the Ballet, and maybe to see a Reds game, and stay at the Netherland Plaza and eat at the Orchids Restaurant at Palm Court downtown.

If we are at the end of an age and the die is cast, I can most honor the age by enjoying what I can of it one last time. I have a feeling that, whether admitted or not, the folks flying to Italy for their conference share a bit of the same philosophy. SAVOR.:-)

RC

I hope any attendees, when consuming their favorite yeasty beverage, remember to do the 'Peakoil Shoutout' when their glass reaches half empty. IMO, this is a great way to celebrate the fantastic work of Hubbert, Colin Campbell, and all the other Peakniks that have helped advanced this crucial discussion.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?