"Am I safe to book next year's holiday?". Only this afternoon I was checking times and prices for flights for a field excursion for my students, for dates which were pencilled in about 6 weeks ago. I found that on the dates in February 2009, the flights that had previously been listed, both outbound and returning had been cancelled. I presume this was because the airline - it should be "easy" for you to guess which - expected there would be insufficient demand for the (cheapest) midweek flights we had intended using. The dates we have now had to switch to are of course, more expensive. So maybe the answer to the question is, if you are rash enough to commiting to a holiday next year given the developing situation, "maybe", but don't bet your shirt (or job) on going on the actual dates you book for!

Following this announcement 'benefits to the economy' were referred to in an interview - on BBC News 24 I recall. Maybe I'm missing something here but Stansted is mainly used by budget airlines with typically 75% to 90% of their passengers being UK citizens. On this basis the proposed expansion will facilitate between 7.5m and 9m to travel abroad taking UK currency with them (aviation tourism is currently estimated to contibute a net deficit of £19bn pa to UK trade balance). Furthermore many of the (relatively low paid) service jobs associated with the airport and local services will be filled by workers from Eastern Europe as opposed to UK citizens. On this basis I'm struggling to see how the UK economy is really going to benefit from this expansion - even the airport owner (BAA) and a major budget carrier at Stansted (Ryan Air) are not UK companies.

In short much of the so-called economic benefit of Stansted Airport expansion will hasten outflow of sterling from the UK....and I doubt financial services will be offsetting so much of this currency outflow from now on. The 'credit crunch' will not be confined to individuals and companies - it will impact whole nations' ability to borrow foreign currency as is already the case with Iceland. From the aspects of environment, energy depletion and economics the case for airport expansion is severely flawed and yet this Government continues to proceed apace with such folly, at Stansted, Heathrow and elsewhere.

Interesting couple of articles have appeared in the Scottish Herald the last couple of days.

35 more airline collapses predicted for 2008 forecasts another 35 airlines to go bust during this winter, but this time it is the Director General of the European Regional Airlines industry body saying it.

Scotland’s airports report 6.6% fall in passengers refers to Scottish airports. The article goes into more detail about statistics for each airport, but numbers of passengers seem to falling at all - Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh. 6.6% is a big drop for one year. The industry however remains optimistic in the face of decline:

"However, we remain confident the market will recover and that demand will return. In the meantime, we are continuing to promote Scotland as a destination and working with airline partners to support their marketing efforts."

And in today's (Sat 11th Oct) Financial Times: BAA passenger traffic falls as airlines collapse:

The number of passengers travelling through BAA's seven UK airports fell sharply last month reflecting the impact of weakening economic growth as well as the collapse of two airlines.

Overall passenger traffic declined by five per cent year-on-year in September, a rapid deterioration compared with the fall of 1.4 per cent in the first nine months.

Traffic volumes have been falling for six months in succession and have fallen in seven of nine months this year, as demand for air travel has slowed under pressure from weaker consumer confidence and higher fares caused by rising fuel costs. The downturn accelerated last month.

... None of the BAA airports escaped the downturn with traffic at Heathrow declining by 3.6 per cent year-on-year and Stansted passenger volumes falling by 4.7 per cent.

Makes you wonder if the UK govt announcement to go ahead with the Stansted expansion was deliberately done before the bad news about air traffic numbers came out.

Despite this negative headline, Cash crisis hits Aberdeen Airport for fifth month in the Aberdeen Press and Journal, the article is never the less upbeat about Aberdeen airport prospects for future growth.