The Oil Drum: Europe

In my last post I talked a little about the media’s normal pre-disposition to ask relatively comfortable questions about the state of oil (and natural gas) supply, with the consequence that some of the more difficult questions and those with more painful answers don’t get asked very often. The painful questions take one beyond the current concerns on the ability of supply to match demand at a reasonable price, to the point where oil production can longer increase in absolute volume, and then on to the point where overall production starts to decline. It is an issue that Euan and the TOD Europe group are beginning to ably document, as they outline the problems that Europe will face. It is a point that is illustrated in the recent post on the Megaproject update by Khebab, and more specifically in the comments on that post. But what I would add to that, and ask, as a painful question, is as to whether the projection is overly optimistic.

Ken Deffeyes, who did so much to bring this current situation to our attention with his writing and books, who has said that he is no longer a prophet, but has become a historian. His remark implies that the much of the debate over peak oil is perhaps over. And there I would disagree with him, because I remain critically concerned, as Euan is, that the world does not really understand the size of the problem that is approaching, and the speed of that arrival. Further the information that controls the shape of the production curve, post peak is usually derived relating to the pattern of the peak in the United States. To anticipate that the world curve will look the same, overlooks the critical difference that, at the present time, there is no satisfactory alternative fuel to satisfy demand. Thus the market imperatives to extract more oil in the immediate short term to meet needs may over-ride more rational concerns about achieving maximum ultimate recovery by producing the oil more slowly. This is a different situation than that which held over the time that the American production plot was developed, and alternate supplies of oil were available from abroad.

Looking at the ASPO Blog, I read these statements by some prominent members of the peak oil community.

[Robert] Hirsch doubts that the world can keep increasing oil flows for much longer. "CERA sees a long plateau ahead," he said. "But I can't find a plateau in the data I'm looking at." The downturn, when it comes, could take the world by surprise. "Peaking could come with little warning and sharp declines," he said....

"We have 1,500 days until peak and tomorrow we'll have one day less," Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review, told the ASPO-5 crowd today. Skrebowski's projections, which focus on oil flows instead of reserves, has the world peaking at between 92 and 94 million barrels per day. Unfortunately, he said, "collectively we're still in denial."

Hirsch is the principal author of the now famous Hirsch Report (large pdf). Skrebowski maintains the Megaprojects Database of future oil production. These quotes got me thinking about the shape of the peak in world oil production which Skrebowski projects as occurring in the fall of 2010.