The Oil Drum: Europe

Last weeks Debate Fact Check #1 highlighted the realities of offshore drilling often glossed over in political discussions. Tonight, with less than 3 weeks remaining before the national election,we will view the final head-to-head presidential debate. Beyond the immediate concern of roiling financial markets, candidates are at least somewhat aware of the complex challenges that lie ahead in the coming energy transition. One popular (and pleasing to the ear) phrase that is frequently used is 'Energy independence'. In my opinion, true energy independence, if possible, will require significantly more focus on reducing energy demand than on increasing energy supply, something we are hearing little about (perhaps because its...err...less likely to win votes?) A slightly different take on this was posted here 2 years ago summarizing Council of Foreign Relations report on the infeasibility of energy independence.)

Below the fold is the second in a series of brief fact-checking exercises regarding the major energy issues in the campaign by Professor Cutler Cleveland.

Senators Obama and McCain are both aware that energy is central to Americas future. However, they differ on the details, and since confidence and authority can sway peoples beliefs, it is important, as always, to 'check the facts'. In last nights debate, Obama, while pointing out the US holds 3% of world oil reserves but uses 25% of world oil production said that we need to 'change the way we view energy in our lives' (to me implying that becoming energy independent is unlikely). In contrast, while McCain agreed on 'ridding ourselves of dependence on foreign oil', his discussion of the "Drill Here Drill Now" strategy implied that such a plan would achieve both lower prices and more energy independence. How much of the energy debate issues are 'politics' vs. facts?

Below the fold is a guest commentary by Professor Cutler Cleveland, providing a needed 'fact-check' on recent political claims being made on offshore drilling.

This is a repost from Cutler Cleveland on the underlying principles of net energy. We previously highlighted Dr. Clevelands work on the Energy Return from Wind. This post is Professor Clevelands latest installment on net energy analysis at the Encyclopedia of Earth, which I have reformatted to theoildrum. The Encyclopedia of Earth, where Prof. Cleveland is an editor/director, is a great academic/content based web clearinghouse for information on earth and our environment. I encourage everyone to follow some of the hyperlinks in the below story and peruse that site.

Outside of taxes and profits, we are a society used to thinking in gross terms. But the net is what we get to use. Net energy analysis, (and its subset EROI) get alot of airtime in peak oil discussions, but not yet in public. If the world is running on a certain total energy surplus, what are the implications for a decline in this surplus? Will the market, via dollars, treat gross production the same and forget to factor in increased costs? There seems to be much disagreement as to how best to use EROI and net energy principles, if at all, in planning for the looming energy crisis.

This is a guest post by TOD reader Jon Friese. Jon is a software engineer living in Minneapolis and a volunteer with the Twin Cities Energy Transition working group, seeking a path to a low carbon future. Under his own initiative Jon tracked down literature on EROI methodology, contacted the Canadian Government and an energy consulting company for data, and came up with the following analysis on declining energy return on Canadian Gas. This draft analysis is provocative (backing into an EROI estimate using $/GJ suggesting possible energy break even for natural gas within a decade). However, in addition to the new info, I was inspired that a smart, engaged citizen chose to volunteer his time on the pressing issue of fossil fuel decline, and then shared it with others in the TOD forum for feedback. Thanks for your initiative here Jon.) (Editors Note: Jon is working on an update to this analysis incorporating feedback from the TOD community -please treat the information in this post as a work in progress.)

Figure 1 Canadian Natural Gas Energy Return on Investment, actual + trend line (Click to enlarge)

This is a repost of Professor Cutler Cleveland's paper on energy transitions. It provides an excellent big picture overview of what issues need to be considered in a successful transition away from fossil fuels. Professor Cleveland previously wrote "Energy From Wind - A Discussion of the EROI Research", and "Ten Fundamental Principles of Net Energy" posted on theoildrum.com. Cutler Cleveland is a Professor at Boston University and has been researching and writing on energy issues for over 20 years. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth, Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Energy, the Dictionary of Energy and the Journal of Ecological Economics

Composition of U.S. energy use. (Source: Cutler Cleveland) Click to Enlarge

This is a guest post from Cutler Cleveland. It provides an excellent big picture overview of what variables we need to consider as we transition away from fossil fuels. Professor Cleveland previously wrote "Energy From Wind - A Discussion of the EROI Research", and "Ten Fundamental Principles of Net Energy" posted on theoildrum.com. Cutler Cleveland is a Professor at Boston University and has been researching and writing on energy issues for over 20 years. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth, Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Energy, the Dictionary of Energy and the Journal of Ecological Economics

One of the breakout session working groups at the ASPO-USA conference focused on the need to have greater understanding of all Energy Flows within and between countries on a Global scale and to have greater understanding of Net Energy within all energy production systems. Within the limited time available at the breakout meeting the focus was on the Net Energy topic and it is therefore Net Energy that is the focus of this short post. ASPO-USA directors Dick Lawrence and Ron Swenson led the session.