The Oil Drum: Europe

Ryanair and the Italian government at odds with each other. This Ryanair advertising shows Italy's ministry for reforms, Mr. Umberto Bossi, in an occasion where he was expressing his disagreement with the words of the Italian national anthem. In the text, the Italian government is accused of "supporting Alitalia's high tariffs", "supporting the frequent Alitalia strikes" and "not caring about the Italian passengers". Ryanair is understandably angry at the preferential treatment that the Italian government is reserving to Alitalia, Italy's national air carrier. Alitalia is in danger of bankruptcy and has been recently saved by a hefty injection of public money.

Yesterday we have heard announcements by Ali-Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, regarding future production capacity increments. We are to believe that Saudi Arabia will produce 12.5 million barrels per day at the end of 2009 and a potential 15 million barrels per day in the coming decade. How should such announcements be valued? Is this achievable? What is meant with production capacity? What type of liquids is Saudi Arabia referring to when talking about oil? In this post I attempt to answer these questions.

Figure 1 - Saudi Arabian production of crude oil (excluding lease condensates) & Natural Gas Liquids (including lease condensates) from January 2005 to May 2008

“Alright!” says the Actress, “You’ve convinced me we have a problem with oil. So what’s the answer?” Well, actually I didn’t. Eloquent and persuasive though I might like to think that I am, what really convinced her was the price she had to pay to fill the gas tank in her car. And it is that way with most of the world. We can talk about the causes, and explain why the situation won’t get better, with graphs and projections and calculations, and most folk will, under the cynical guidance of most of the press, merely look for someone to blame. Oh, and there had better be an answer, pretty quick.

In my last post I tried to show that new solutions take time, more time than I believe that we have available. And because of this, if we are going to get through this evolving period we are largely going to be stuck with the solutions that are already either being introduced or are close to large-scale implementation. Though that is one of the things I tried to allude to in the earlier post about Camry mileage. The scale of the difference between likely supply and demand at a decent price is going to get quite large. If a solution does not provide supply levels that measure in millions of barrels a day (or significant fractions thereof) then it is not going to have enough impact to make much difference in the medium term.

There have been several refining questions lately that were topical to this essay, originally posted in January 2007. Here I have updated it to reflect more recent prices.

When a refinery purchases crude oil, the key piece of information they need to know about that crude, besides price, is what the crude oil assay looks like. There has been a lot of discussion here at various times about “light sweet”, or “heavy sour”, and how these qualifiers affect the ability of a refiner to turn these crudes into products. So, I thought it would be good to devote an essay to this subject, and discuss how different types of crude can affect a refiner’s bottom line.

Let's compare light sweet oil to heavy sour oil by looking at a pair of assays:

Liquid Volume %	Generic Light Sweet	Generic Heavy Sour
Gas (Boiling Point to 99°F)	4.40	3.40
Straight Run (99 to 210°F)	6.50	4.10
Naphtha (210 to 380°F)	18.60	9.10
Kerosene (380 to 510°F)	13.80	9.20
Distillate (510 to 725°F)	32.40	19.30
Gas Oil (725 to 1050°F)	19.60	26.50
1050+ Residuals	4.70	28.40
Sulfur %	0.30	4.90
API	34.80	22.00

Table 1. Comparison Between Assays of Light and Heavy Crudes

Concerns about a gap in crude oil demand/supply in the 2nd half of 2007 increased in the past months. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and it’s sister organisation, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have both told the OPEC cartel that OPEC must increase supply to avert rising oil prices. Presently the agencies expect a crude oil demand/supply shortfall of 1 million barrels per day towards the end of the year. However the OPEC cartel is of the opinion that oil markets are well supplied and therefore there is no need to increase supply at the moment.

This discussion, as shown below, boils down to the expectation for non-OPEC supply and world demand in the 2nd half. If the IEA and EIA projections are correct, we will soon find out what is going on in Saudi Arabia with the production of the supergiant oilfield Ghawar.

This morning at 10:30 am EST, the Department of Energy released their weekly supply reports for crude oil and refined products. Gasoline stocks increased for the 7th consecutive week, and the build of 1.79 million barrels to 203.3 million barrels was higher than the market expectation of a 1.19 mb rise. Gasoline prices initially sold off 2 cents, paused for a while, then dropped sharply and spent most of the day down 5-6 cents. In the last 30 minutes of trading however, the prices rallied back to finish only down 1.5 cents on the day. Crude, after being down $2 at one point, closed down 75 cents.

Robert is on vacation so I'm posting the text of the report for those interested, along with some comments from a prominent Wall Street analyst, Paul Cheng, of Lehman Brothers. The TWIP (the text that accompanies the data released at 1pm), and some thoughts below the fold.

I was reading the story that Leanan had posted on the IEA estimate for oil demand, and it struck me that we are in that navel gazing part of the year where we try and estimate what will happen to oil supply and prediction. Since it helps to have data, let’s see what the crude oil and gasoline situation looks like, using the EIA data.

It is worth remembering, as we look at the history of crude stocks over the past year that, about twelve months ago we were looking into a future that was anticipating a second bad hurricane season, as well as the usual geo-political machinations and technical problems that would combine to limit crude oil supplies. In the end these were not as severe as we had expected, and the precaution of building oil stocks for the summer was not, this past year, needed as we had a more benign summer than usual.

When a refinery purchases crude oil, the key piece of information they need to know about that crude, besides price, is what the crude oil assay looks like. There has been a lot of discussion here at various times about “light sweet”, or “heavy sour”, and how these qualifiers affect the ability of a refiner to turn these crudes into products. So, I thought it would be good to devote an essay to this subject, and discuss how different types of crude can affect a refiner’s bottom line.

Let's compare light sweet oil to heavy sour oil by looking at a pair of assays:

Liquid Volume %	Generic Light Sweet	Generic Heavy Sour
Gas (Boiling Point to 99°F)	4.40	3.40
Straight Run (99 to 210°F)	6.50	4.10
Naphtha (210 to 380°F)	18.60	9.10
Kerosene (380 to 510°F)	13.80	9.20
Distillate (510 to 725°F)	32.40	19.30
Gas Oil (725 to 1050°F)	19.60	26.50
1050+ Residuals	4.70	28.40
Sulfur %	0.30	4.90
API	34.80	22.00

Table 1. Comparison Between Assays of Light and Heavy Crudes

Along with most who have read it, I was much impressed with the Chicago Tribune special segment on oil this weekend, and, if you have the time, would highly recommend that you both read the articles and watch the video (which takes about an hour). It does not have the fictionalized aspects that we have seen in other coverage from the BBC through Fox, and CNN about the problem, but rather, in a series of facts, lays out the situation. For those who don't have the opportunity, I thought I would give a summary, with some comments.

Herumph! There I go and take a couple of days to finish a report, and whoops, there is all sort of stuff that I should be posting about. Whether it is the realization that LNG contracts are going to be needed as the US need will grow from 2 - 10% in the next four years, or a strong urge to explain some of the other aspects of oil sands and oil shale to the current rather one-sided debate (grin). But, before I get to these, in later posts, I would like to draw your attention to the recent listing by the OGJ of their version of the Megaprojects that are going to come on line between now and 2010. For those who have not been following this discussion, if a significant oil production project has not been started yet, then there are logistical reasons why it probably can't be put on line within the next four years. In the past year we have seen CERA and Chris Skrebowski both provide their lists, and now we have the latest list from the Oil and Gas Journal.