The Oil Drum: Europe

Higher energy prices are feeding through to rampant consumer energy price inflation. And yet the authorities and many investment houses still see energy prices falling in the future. This naive view of global energy supplies is starving energy markets of the capital required to expand conventional and alternative energy supplies.

UK National Grid, with responsibility for the distribution of natural gas and electricity in the UK, see flat to falling natural gas prices to 2015 and beyond. Comments welcome!

Global annual average natural gas spot prices from the BP statistical review of world energy 2007. Click all charts to enlarge

[Editor's note: this story was first run on 4th February 2008]

This is the talk I was honored to deliver to ASPO Italy on 3rd May 2008 at their annual conference in Turin. 24 slides below the fold plus narrative of what I said on the day. The narrative boxes are below the slides.

An Italian translation of this post is available here. Thanks to Maurizio Moretto for the translation. Thanks are also due to Jean Laherrere of ASPO France for providing his interpretations of Russian and North African gas supplies.

Questa è la relazione che ho avuto l'onore di presentare ad ASPO Italia, il 3 maggio 2008, in occasione della conferenza annuale tenutasi a Torino. Sono 24 slides integrate dai commenti (i riquadri sottostanti) che ho potuto esporre a voce durante la presentazione.

La versione inglese di questo post è disponibile qui. Un ringraziamento a Maurizio Moretto per la traduzione italiana. Un ringraziamento a Maurizio Moretto per la traduzione italiana. Ringraziamenti sono dovuti anche a Jean Laherrere di ASPO France per aver fornito il suo punto di vista sulle forniture di gas dalla Russia e dal Nordafrica.

Higher energy prices are feeding through to rampant consumer energy price inflation. And yet the authorities and many investment houses still see energy prices falling in the future. This naive view of global energy supplies is starving energy markets of the capital required to expand conventional and alternative energy supplies.

Global annual average natural gas spot prices from the BP statistical review of world energy 2007. Click all charts to enlarge

... or is Europe running low on natural gas?

OECD Europe gas imports may grow by 295 BCM per annum by 2020. In the same time period, global LNG production is set to grow by 350 BCM per annum. So we Europeans should be OK, so long as the USA, Japan, China, South Korea, India and Taiwan are not planning to expand their LNG imports as well.

Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, at Christmas. A wondrous site. And none of our politicians or the general public ever wonder where the energy comes from and how we will pay for it. Cutting CO2 emissions is a priority for all parties. Eliminating nuclear power is also high on the agenda. Confused? Our politicians certainly are. Visit Edinburgh while you can, it's one of Europe's finest cities.