If you look at exports you will see they are around 26 mcm/day so around 800 mcm for January. Add this back to the actual and it takes it back to similar levels in previous years. WTF are our gas companies doing exporting gas ????

And the sequence of events if we do get a shortfall ? Interruptible industry first ? How bad would it have to be before my boiler cuts out ? That's the bottom line ...
Actually I chose my boiler partly because it can run on LPG without adjustment.
For most people - I would guess the 90% on mains gas - it would be plug-in heaters, propane cylinders ( for the 8 hours the shops have stocks ), wood stoves etc.
Together with a 100A cable, LPG generator and 2 pairs of 47kg bottles I will ( from next year ! ) just about do a whole winter on reduced load without mains gas or electric. Not bad for a stealth behind the shed installation.
I do wonder though - in Bulgaria, for example, the electric grid faltered but did not collapse. There weren't mass deaths by freezing. Things adapt.
Of course we are a) softer and b) don't give a crap about elderly relatives in the UK and will probably see pensioners dying and carbon monoxide poisoning ( as people drag their BBQs indoors ) followed by mass burst water pipes.

According to Interconnector data, natural gas exports from UK to Continental Europe increased with approximately 10 Mcm/d from January 20th to January 21st.

$4.8 per mmbtu or $0.48/therm

But NatGas is not a fungible commodity.

Do you have a pipe running from the gas well to
your home?

If not you're no different than Iceland. Geothermal anyone?

"But Iceland at least had the luxury of letting banks default – shifting losses on to the rest of the world. It refused to honour foreign debts.

“They drew a line,” said Jerry Rawclifffe, who tracks Iceland for Fitch Ratings. “They created new banks, parking the old losses in resolution committees. It is not easy for other governments to walk away. They have a duty of care.”

Indeed, if Britain walked away from UK banks’ $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities – worth eight times Lehman Brothers – it would destroy the credibility of the City and take the whole world into deeper depression.

“The UK cannot go down that route because it would set off an asset price death spiral,” said Marc Ostwald, a bond expert at Monument Securities. “The Western banking system is already on life support. That would turn it off altogether.”

Via: Telegraph: via cryptogon

Dayahead price is now at 53,25 p/therm which translates into approximately US$7,35 Million Btus.

Henry Hub (US) presently at US$4,87 per Million btus.

1 Therm = 100 000 Btus.

Forward curve favors NBP prices slightly, but USA prices aren't all at 4.80, only at henry hub. Z6 (northeast market area) eg is well above NBP for most peak winter months. Kern River otoh is going to be around 3 USD.

This is why using natural gas to generate electricity - and especially using it as a major component of the electric supply - is, to use the technical term 'FacePalm stupid'.

So 85Gw * .61 / 20 million = 2350w peak per household. Probably enough in a pinch - with rolling load shedding.

andrew,

The import boost came from Norway through Langeled that ran at capacity most of the holidays season.

One way to deal with a potential shortfall is through increased imports (both LNG and pipelined gas).

If a shortage occurs (i.e. demand surpassing supplies) I would assume that industrial users on interruptible contracts would be the first to be cut off.

If that is not eneough to balance demand and supplies I would assume (some) electricity generation plants would be encouraged to switch to distillates, if not some nat gas supplies to electricity generation might be shut down to balance supplies and demand.

I think that everyone would try to do whatever necessary to avoid households being cut off, and that households would be urged to reduce demand (turn down thermostats, put on a sweaters etc.).

A scenario where households are cut off from nat gas and trying to substitute with electricity is something I believe many will go to great lengths to avoid.

It seems like the market does not expect a shortage, or could the market be wrong?

The simulation model fills the gap between forecast demand and (indigenous production + net imports).

What you describe is an alteration of the withdrawals from LRS (Long Range Storage) and MRS (medium Range Storage) which would result in an earlier emptying of LRS and a delayed emptying of MRS.

I will soon revert (have to dig out the diagrams and get them posted in this thread) with the temperatures used by National Grid for the rest of this winter.

In general, it has been observed that actual temperatures have been lower than those used in the National Grids forecasts.

Presently I don’t have data going back to 1996/1997.
I have been of the impression that UK storage facilities have been expanded in recent years.
Back in 2002 – 2004 total UK storage seemed to be like 3 500 Mcm, so the UK storage facilities has been expanded to presently 4 200 - 4 300 Mcm.

If this winter on average turns out to be colder than the recent winters it should be expected that more gas will be used for heating.

My simulations has taken into account the growth in UK imports through Langeled and BBL (it seems now that these are on daily average running close to those used in my simulations), and Norwegian deliveries through Langeled has in times been running at max towards UK.

Time will show if the flow in the Interconnector will reverse later this winter.

According to Interconnector data, natural gas exports from UK to Continental Europe increased with approximately 10 Mcm/d from January 20th to January 21st.

I still believe that UK nat gas prices needs to move closer to 100p/therm before any meaningful volumes starts to flow from Continental Europe to UK.

Figure 9 in post answers your 3rd question.

U. K. has three types of storage facilities:

1) Long Term (Rough, capacity of 3 340 Mcm and max flow rate of 42 Mcm/d), which is a depleted reservoir.

2) Medium Term (Hornsea, Hole House Farm, Hatfield Moor, Humbly Grove; total capacity of 767 - 837 Mcm and max total flow rate of 37 Mcm/d), which are mostly salt caverns.

3) Short Term (Avonmouth, Dynevor Arms, Glenmavis, Partington; total capacity of 260 Mcm and max total flow rate of 48 Mcm/d) which are LNG facilities.

The UK has opted for a different strategy when it comes to storage, whereas storage is mainly to be used during cold snaps.

To indicate such a temperature is a tough call as it needs to be seen together with indigenous supplies and net imports and these numbers varies from one day to another.

The diagram below shows UK actual demand in Mcm/d (black line) plotted against the left y-axis and forecast temperature (light green line), actual temperature (blue line) and SNT (Seasonal Normal Temperature) (red line) plotted against the right y-axis.
Note the scaling for the right y-axis.

I assume that the temperatures in the above diagram are weighted averages for UK.
Generally I would consider any temperatures below the red line (normal temperature) a cold snap.

Going thorugh National Grid data on forecast temperatures versus actual temperatures for the years 2006 - 2008 it was found that National Grid on average forecast the temperature to be 1 Centigrade higher than actual temperatures. This will tend to underestimate demand.

Thanks for a fine update!

According to the article, "The ship, one of a new generation of so-called Q-Flex LNG tankers, has a capacity of 211,885 cubic meters of LNG." If it actually has that much on board, how big an impact would it have?