SamuM - my question was really a general one - I'm hoping that Luis or Chris or Nate turn up to answer.

My hypothesis is: radically more expensive prices for radically more efficient use.

I'm increasingly convinced of the inverse of this statement which is:

radically more efficient use will lead to radically more expensive prices

And the conclusion that those societies / countries that use energy most efficiently will be able to pay higher prices and win the bidding war.

Great point.

The more value we can get out of a barrel of oil, the more we can pay for that oil, and the better we will do in the global auction for a fixed or declining supply of available oil.

Incomes being equal, a driver of a 50 mpg econo-box, can (and will) afford to pay a lot more per gallon than a driver of a 10 mpg SUV.
However, if the driver stops going to work, his income drops, he will be less able to afford fuel.
This is the risk posed by using energy taxes to change behavior, individuals will make decisions based on the cost of those decisions, but if their decisions result in less GDP (especially exportable GDP), and/or if the government spends those tax dollars on activities that do not make our economy more productive (in terms of exports), we will be worse off than before.

Forrest

Efficiency: Maximizing production (profit) in combining labor, capital, raw materials, and technology.

We can modify the production process to use more or less of a specific input in response to changes in the relative cost of each input, only a reduction in the cost of a specific input can increase (total) production or reduce cost / unit.