The Oil Drum: Europe

The oil companies are of course to be applauded for their enterprise and tenacity for maximising recovery from the North Sea. However, in presentations like this the optimistic out look masks the dreadful and detereorating state of the UK energy balance with imports of oil, natural gas and coal growing year on year, destroying our trade balance.

Apache's endeavors on Forties are to be applauded but this must be placed in context. The field revival is that little bump in the tail end of Forties production in 2004/5.

Talisman too have done a great job of nurturing mature assets through their twilight years. It is worth mentioning though that Dr James Buckee, former CEO of Talisman is a patron of the Peak Oil movement and is about as gloomy as they come for the outlook of global oil production.

The UK North Sea has produced about 25 billion barrels of oil. A Hubbert Linearisation decline analysis suggests that the UK may ultimately produce between 28 and 30 billion barrels, so with 25 billion already gone that leaves 3 to 5 billion in remaining reserves. The BP statistical review (published 2007 with figures for 2006) quotes 3.9 billion barrels of reserves for the UK.

To suggest that the UK may produce as much oil in the next 40 years as it has done in the last 30 years is irresponsible pipe dreaming. All our biggest and best fields are near empty and are lining up to be decommissioned. Our politicians need to face this grim reality and then act accordingly to ensure that the UK can provide for its future energy needs. This will involve truly massive expansion of alternative energy sources and legislating for energy efficiency in transportation and power generation.