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65 comments on All that's wrong with 'common wisdom' in one article
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Jeff,
Do you find this scary?
I posted my first article on net oil exports in January, 2006, and my opinion has not really changed since then. IMO, the very lifeblood of the world economy is draining away in front of our very eyes, and the key point is that net export decline rates tend to accelerate with time.
To my mind, the scary thing is that it appears to be draining away in front of our collective eyes and very few people seem to be seeing it.
It will be even scarier when the same starts happenning to food exports. (Actually it has already started.)
Its the speed with which it will happen that is the scary thing. What it means is that we might just scrape through the next decade (although its going to be awful) but the 2020s are going to be an absolute nightmare...
Resource Nationalism is going to be like a hammer blow -At some point I can see Russia saying to the West "In the face of our own crisis we are ceasing (or dramatically curtailing) oil and Gas exports"- and its not very far away, this could happen way before the 2024 zero date estimate, possibly in as little as 10 years...
Nick.