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65 comments on All that's wrong with 'common wisdom' in one article

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westexas on June 2, 2008 - 7:24am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

I've lately been writing about the problems that the US is facing because of net oil export declines in two of our closest oil suppliers, Venezuela & Mexico. Venezuela is showing a long term net export decline. Mexico is on the fast track to zero net oil exports, probably within six years.

Europe of course has its own problems, with net export declines in Norway & Russia. Our middle case has both Norway and Russia approaching zero net oil exports around 2025.

Russia's Oil Output, Exports Extend Declines in May
2008-06-02 04:52 (New York)
By Torrey Clark

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the world's second-largest oil
supplier, produced 0.8 percent less crude in May than in the same
month last year, bringing the country closer to the first annual
drop in oil output in a decade. Exports also fell.

Production slid to 9.74 million barrels a day (41.2 million
metric tons a month) from 9.82 million barrels a day a year
earlier, according to data released today by CDU TEK, the Energy
Ministry's dispatch center. Output rose 0.2 percent from April. . .

. . . Total exports fell to 5.52 million barrels a day, 4.6 percent
less than in May last year and 1.6 percent less than in April this
year.

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FuturePundit on June 2, 2008 - 10:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jeff,

Do you find this scary?

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westexas on June 2, 2008 - 10:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I posted my first article on net oil exports in January, 2006, and my opinion has not really changed since then. IMO, the very lifeblood of the world economy is draining away in front of our very eyes, and the key point is that net export decline rates tend to accelerate with time.

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embryonic on June 3, 2008 - 6:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

To my mind, the scary thing is that it appears to be draining away in front of our collective eyes and very few people seem to be seeing it.

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Beach Boy on June 3, 2008 - 4:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It will be even scarier when the same starts happenning to food exports. (Actually it has already started.)

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noutram on June 3, 2008 - 6:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Its the speed with which it will happen that is the scary thing. What it means is that we might just scrape through the next decade (although its going to be awful) but the 2020s are going to be an absolute nightmare...

Resource Nationalism is going to be like a hammer blow -At some point I can see Russia saying to the West "In the face of our own crisis we are ceasing (or dramatically curtailing) oil and Gas exports"- and its not very far away, this could happen way before the 2024 zero date estimate, possibly in as little as 10 years...

Nick.

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