 | Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel | The Oil Drum: Europe | Why oil costs over $120 per barrel |  |
106 comments on One big sigh... (Sarkozy on lowering gas taxes)
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To some extent, I think that the delusional thinking we are seeing is blowback from ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco and CERA, et al, asserting that--worst case--we don't have to worry about Peak Oil for decades. These parties are basically giving some degree of credence to the conspiracy theorists.
And dont' forget President Ronald Reagan envisioning "a future without limits," and the public and media lapped it up, and they laughed at President Jimmy Carter who warned all of us about the "catastrophe" of the energy crisis ahead. And then there are those who preached don't worry, there's lots of solar energy, we just need to make a switch... but they forgot to consider that we need liquid fuels.
I think history will not treat kindly that generation of politicians, Reagan, Thatcher et al that pandered to the grossest elements of human nature to get elected and allowed people to believe that there is no limit to how rich we can all get, and no limit to what the planet can supply us with, a mindset that is still very much with us.
Well, I saw a "documentary" called "In the Face of Evil" about Reagan which seemed to me to be the most shameless propaganda I've ever seen though it is much much less skillfully done than "Potemkin". Yet, it was on TV without any comment about its many false claims. You could see though that Jeane Kirkpatrick knew she was lying in her bits. It seems to me that history is going to have a lot of work to do to get past those who worship Reagan as an idol.
Chris
cj- the energy crisis ended while reagan was in office. oil dropped like a rock.
there is lots of solar and we can use it. we do need liquid fuels but they aren't going away tomorrow. we still have half our oil left. we can use solar to power our cars...
Of course the energy crisis did not end, it just became a non-issue, that is an important issue that is not on the public agenda.
"""We can use solar to power our cars.""" Hey John, what have you been smoking??????.
Who is going to buy a solar powered car he/she is out of work, the $35,000 SUV is worthless for a trade-in, inflation is rampant, and they can't make the house payments.
Daniel Yergin has an articale in the FT today headlined as Oil has reached a turning point. It's behind a paywall but you can register for free and view
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57b6ff18-2bf2-11dd-9861-000077b07658.html
"...
What is now unfolding is an oil shock...
Oil supply, one might think, should be responding. Yet there are three obstacles. The first is time. These high prices have not been around all that long and development of new supplies takes many years. The second is access to new resources. And the third factor is what is happening to costs...
Everything is in short supply – people, equipment, engineering skills...
Demand is already responding to the new prices except in those parts of the world where retail fuel prices are controlled or subsidised. What can be done to improve the supply picture? The International Energy Agency’s work on future supply is getting attention. But the IEA’s message is not that the resources are not there. Rather it is the likely risk that the required investment will be “deferred” – will not take place in a timely way – because of these rising costs and because governments restrict access or postpone decisions...
The break point is already here. Oil is in the process of losing its almost total domination in ground transport...
..."
So no acknowledgement of Peak Oil but a push for more investment and less government restrictions. I detect a bit of passing the buck since he mentions the IEA message rather than CERA whe he says resources are there.
I wonder what exactly he thinks is going to replace oil? Pedal power? Flintstone feet?
electricity will replace oil.
Can apples replace oranges? Electricity (excluding a little hydro, wind, solar) isn't usually considered a primary source of energy. Electricity is just a vector, from which primary energy do you think this oil replacing electricity will be generated from.
I don't think the common man has ever heard of CERA and doesn't know the position of the oil companies. And if they did they have a distrust and dislike of the oil companies. The only authority figure that could possibly convince them that there is an oil problem is the leader of their country. Since most leaders are not talking Peak Oil the common man has no idea what is coming down the pike.
Even people with college degrees are mostly ignorant of the situation. I mentioned Peak Oil to a colleague the other day and gave some details and he asked me if this was some conspiracy theory I was reading about from some fringe group on a website.