The Oil Drum: Europe

My experience has been that Khebab is an objective scientist, interested in mathematically modeling complex production situations, who has enormously contributed to the Peak Oil debate.

On the other hand, my impression is that you have nothing to offer other than useless spurious criticisms.

Asebius, perhaps you should state your statistical background, so that we can determine your level of veracity.

Strong statements! I do have a PhD in Signal Processing so I think I know a few things about statistics!

A few weeks back somebody with a decent stats background completely lost his cool here on account of one of Khebab's masterpieces. Not that it did any good.

I don't recall that, do you have a link?

Beside, I don't see how bad data sources have nothing to do with performing misleading statistical analysis. In any case it won't change the outcome for Russia.

Don't forget also that most contributors are doing this work on their free time and have a demanding day work so mistakes are possible (I often find mistakes in peer-reviewed articles almost on a daily basis).

Oh man Asebius, do you have nothing positive to contribute to these discussions? I find all of your comments unnecessary and counter productive, mostly I doubt you have any idea what you're actually talking about.

The people here at TOD do a great job of putting together complex info for the public's awareness on their own time, just because they feel people ought to know the trouble they got themselves into. What you're doing doesn't help the purpose of this intellectual forum, perhaps there is a forum where they welcome people who have nothing to contribute to an actual discussion, but I don't know where you would look.

I don't contribute much because I prefer to read more knowledgeble people's opinions. I do not count you as one of them.

Thanks for all the great analysis Khebab et Al

Asebius - wtf are you driving at here? Khebab is one of my most trusted sources. Sure we are all liable to make mistakes from time to time - but I'm not aware of many mistakes that Khebab has made. I'm not sure if you are being serious here or not. But one thing you have to realise is that running up charts and responding to comments like this takes time.

Splitting out Russian from FSU production is something we'd love to do - perhaps you could donate the data?

The relative heights of FSU and Russian production are actually quite irrelevant. What is highly relevant is that the territory currently known as Russia is struggling to increase production, or, has chosen to not increase production, perhaps rationalising that producing 5% less for twice the price makes good sense.

So what is your opinion on Russian oil production?

Here is an overlay of my chart and Rembrandt's chart (Figure 68):

Rembrandt is using BP data (C+C+NGL) for 1985-2006 and ASPO data (C+C?) prior to 1985. We can see that using FSU data (EIA) prior to 1992 is higher by maybe 5% but it's a relatively reasonable approximation.