Pedrot16,

As a Brit who frequently visits the Algarve region of Portugal, I have seen tremendous improvement to the transportation system in the last 13 years.

Whilst much of this has been the new motorway to Spain and to Lisbon, you should not forget the upgrade to the railway system between Lisbon and Faro.

Portugal may have an ageing railway system, but repair and renewal is not impossible.

2020

When I was born there were less than 50 km of highways in the country. When the monies started flowing from the EU we quickly upgraded building endless miles of tarmac, to Spain, to the Algarve, interconnecting the industrial north, to Galicia, east-southwards, shoreline alternatives and to Spain again. All pretty useful infrastructure in the XXI century.

Our railway system to the outside of the country is a joke. Lisbon and Madrid are connected by a regional railway line, not even by an inter-city. The journey there takes about 10 hours and costs something in the order of 100 €.

Lisbon and Oporto are connected with the same flavour of HSR as Lisbon – Faro (theoretic max speed 250 km/h). But unfortunately in the last two thirds of the journey the train rarely goes over 100 km/h, due to various politic issues that prevented the proper upgrading of the railway line (environment, property, geographic, etc).

Plans existed for a proper HSR network to be built at the dawn of the century, but our politicians' endless insight delayed most of it sine die, with the Lisbon – Madrid connection set for 2013 at the earliest.

Lisbon is about 2400 km way from the heart of Europe (Paris – Amesterdam – Frankfurt triangle). Once diesel is high enough to stop the trans-european lorries our economy dies for good.

Sorry but here I can comment as an American I actually work in Extremadura Spain and the connection between Lisbon and Madrid is a absolute travesty. I know the province is poor on the Spanish side thats why I work there but what the hell ?

The buses are actually quite nice but its still not decent rail and this is between the two largest cities.

Sorry but you touched on my number one beef with all of Europe no high speed rail between Madrid and Lisbon.

I feel much better now :)

On the other hand, there are a number of factors that may benefit Portugal:

  • The relatively large percentage of electric power that is provided by renewables (mostly hydro, but increasingly wind and even solar). It's supposed to be already around 45%.
  • Some 70% (and rising) of the population lives near the coast, where the climate is gentle enough that one can survive winter without heating. It may not be comfortable (particularly in the northern regions where even in the coast temperatures can drop below freezing), but it is doable. On the other hand, global warming may mean that air conditioning usage may increase during the summer.
  • Salaries are still low by European standards, meaning that companies may have an incentive to move production to Portugal if transportation costs make China too expensive.
  • Serious economic hardship is not a foreign concept to most of the population. When talking to people over 50, it's not uncommon for them to recall actual hunger in their childhood days.

I'm not that old, but I remember 1982 particularly. Hunger was close by then for some people; soup was on my menu indefinetelly, we couldn't buy pork nor beef.