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63 comments on European Gas Security: The Future of Natural Gas
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Great presentation. We will have to see how the new Qatar production affects these graphs. Quite intriguing to see Italy so dependant on natgas. If LNG is to be the new hit, we have yet to see all the production come on line. We seem to be lacking the capacity to build capacity. Yet agaain, im just a newbie
LNG supplies from Qatar are included in the above. We have no problem building LNG import facilities - the problem is expanding export facilities which are dependent upon actual gas production.
The other big uncertainty is the share of global LNG that will come Europe's way. The main competition here will be between Europe, USA, China, India and the established markets in Japan and S Korea.
Euan,
This is very good stuff. I am very concerned about the effects of Peak Gas on the UK.
Two questions:
1. How much energy goes into liquefying the LNG and how much of this is wasted? I ask because it presumably increases the overall CO2 emissions associated with natural gas use (although no doubt for 'official' accounting purposes, the LNG liquefaction counts in the CO2 emissions for Qatar, etc., rather than in the UK).
2. We can no doubt look forward to higher gas prices and more volatile ones. What concerns me is that the volatility will make it very difficult to plan finance for future gas-fired electricity generation. I'm no so worried about straight CCGT baseload generation as more esoteric gas CHP with heat storage that could be used as a flexible complement to variable wind, tide and wave electricity. So will future gas prices be so volatile that no-one will touch gas as a fuel with a bargepole?
Myself, I can't help feeling that the UK should be emulating the German programme of insulating the buildings stock as quickly as possible (and adopting Danish style CHP) before the gas price gets horrific (and the whole population is cast into Fuel Poverty).
Note: By my calcs, it will require about a cubic kilometre of insulation to make a good job on the UK building stock, so we'd better ramp up insulation production asap.
BobE
I agree entirely with this view. But what chance do we have with the current crop of totally ignorant and spineless "leaders" we have?
add the following to totaly ignorant and spineless:
We are fast running out of money.
No room for tax reductions: - All tax is required just to feed the payroll vote and social services
Food and fuel inflation.
Corporation taxes about to fall due to the crippled city of London and other, failing service businesses
Unemployment about to go up.
Try a radical strategy under these circumstances - just not possible.
We are out of time Euan. There is no wriggle room left. The Nuke option may not now happen at all under a crippled Prime -Minister.
The economic growth which has come from the financial services pushing personal debt to record levels
According to
http://www.creditaction.org.uk/feb.html
we are paying £259 million a day on interest on loans. £3,800 per household per year.
Prudent?
Lets see what happens when the boomers retire.
http://www.moneybasics.co.uk/resources/news/2004/september-2004.html
Thats if our younger generation haven't all killed each other before then :( sad times
If the catholic church wanted to do something useful perhaps they should be ranting about usuary not abortion and embryo research.
/rant off
Hello,
Normally 85 – 90 % of the nat gas fed into the LNG process becomes LNG.
NGM2
Euan, have you heard anything regarding the reliability of the North Field reserve estimate. I remember Qatar put a hold on new LNG prospects for a bit and there was discussion that it might be because the field is smaller than estimated. But I have not seen anything more about it. Thoughts?