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GAIA Host Collective
Agreed - Russia the smoking gun.
This is great work Rembrandt - did any stinking rich hedge fund ever buy you a new lap top yet?
Euan, have you contacted a Norwegian Real Estate agent as you promised during our last lunch at ASPO-Houston ?
Best Hopes for Norwegian farmland,
Alan
Not yet - but my wife has been offered an adjunct professors position in Norway which is a good starting point.
This is the GBP - NOK exchange rate:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=GBP&to=NOK&amt=1&t=5y
As I've said many times, the GBP and USD are in fierce competition for basket case currency of the decade.
Euan
Euan,
What was that question you asked me during the Q&A at ASPO-USA?
I can't recall Jeffrey - did it have something to do with Exports?
What evidence do you have for imminent declines in oil production from Russia and the UAE?
Our (Khebab/Brown) middle case is that Russia will be approaching zero net oil exports in about 16 years (initial estimated 10 year decline rate shown):
The other problem for Europe, at least in terms of proximity to exporters, is to the west. Our middle case shows Norway approaching zero net oil exports in the same time frame as Russia:
Of course, here in the states, I expect Mexico, the #3 source of imported crude for the US, to be approaching zero net oil exports within 6 years.
It was a good question then Jeffery - what was the answer?
I may be redundant, but I am consistent--HL my friend, HL--and I first stated my HL based concerns about the top three net oil exports in January, 2006. At present, all three of them--Saudi Arabia; Russia and Norway--are showing annual and/or monthly declines in oil production. Of course, Norway is not really in dispute, but the other two were, and are.
My position is that the HL estimates should be assumed to be approximately correct, until proven otherwise.
And how's the UAE doing?
If memory serves, actually pretty much flat for 2007, but we shall see what happens in 2008. Total net exports from the top five dropped by 800,000 bpd in 2006 (EIA). I estimate that they dropped by about one mbpd in 2007, which as the model predicted, is an accelerating decline rate.
Regarding Russia, there was a lot of "smoke" in 2007--crude production had been flat between 9.4 and 9.5 mbpd since 10/06 and there were several reports of rising water cuts.
Hi Jeffrey.
I'm curious, how come you don't make more use of charts 19-24 of Rembrandt's report? There is a lot of noise in the "total liquids" because (I presume)of biofuels. But exports are in a nosedive and would seem to prove that your Export Land Model is not only correct, but is having a decisive effect: especially since the US sucks up half of all imports.
yours, jim
Nope still using the same one. I ordered a stinking fast new computer though but that will still take a few weeks to arrive.