The Oil Drum: Europe

Between the massive nuclear sector in France and the heavy investment in wind and solar by Germany (and now Spain), only about half of "old Europe"'s electricity comes from fossil fuels, meaning reductions in fossil fuels alone aren't enough to black out Europe.

Why the predicted shortfall of electricity in much of Europe starting around 2012?

Because they haven't been building enough capacity, of course.

Which is irrelevant to my point about large-scale non-fossil generating capacity already existing in Europe, so I can only assume you've jumped into this non sequitur in order to "prove" me "wrong" about something.

Unfortunately for you, your links don't support what you seem to be saying - they make it clear that the collapse of the European grid is highly unlikely. Let's take your link for Germany, for example, and show the context you so carefully omitted:

In addition to the heads of Germany's major energy utilities, who have until now shamelessly earned billions from their oligopoly, strategists at alternative providers, like German renewable energy company Lichtblick, are also now saying that, unless something changes, Germany is headed for a "power shortfall."

When that happens, electricity will become scarce and far more costly than it already is today. "We could face a power shortfall of between 12,000 and 21,000 megawatts," predicts Wulf Bernotat, the CEO of major German utility company E.on. The figure corresponds to the amount of power generated by at least a dozen large nuclear or coal power plants.

Gabriel insists, at every opportunity, that there is "no power shortfall." All that he means by this is that Germany is unlikely to be plagued by major blackouts. But he does agree that a lack of investment will lead to supply bottlenecks and sharp increases in the cost of electricity, unless Germany builds new power plants and an adequate network of new power lines.

Key features here:

• Power shortfall unless something changes. You're making the same "nothing changes" mistake again.
• "Germany is unlikely to be plagued by major blackouts"

As we've seen, things that you believe are not always true.

I'm sure such beliefs exist, but you've so far failed to point out any instances.

I'd be glad if you had, since then I'd learn something, but considering how you seem to be more focussed on getting back at me for pointing out your mistakes rather than actually learning from them, it's not clear you're up to it.