Olduvai 2008 movie
Posted by Luis de Sousa on March 1, 2008 - 11:30am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: alternative energy, movie, olduvai, peak coal, peak fossil fuels, peak natural gas, peak oil [list all tags]
As an addendum to the Olduvai 2008 post there's a movie available that digests the main ideas presented there.
This was an original idea of Nate Hagens and Chris Vernon to somehow broaden the TOD readership spectrum to people with busy schedules and/or short attention spans. This new Olduvai assessment seemed a good place to start, although in the future the objective is to have more concise and direct movies, targeted for people who are not so savvy on fossil fuel depletion.
The budget was €0, so this piece of media is far from perfect, to which we ask for your understanding.
You can watch the movie using these links:
Fantastic idea, the video gives the larger audience a chance to learn about our situation. Thank you for producing this video.
An additional way to visualize the peak issue is available as a modeling tool which can be downloaded from this site. This tool graphically displays the supply graph into the future following the changes you make to the input parameters sliders (total reserves, production rate, depletion rate, etc). You can also create linearization charts from the current production graph and interactively slide the linearization data selection set along the data points to view how moving the data set effects the total calculated reserves quantity.
I posted this on TOD about a year ago, but since the readership has increased, I would like to suggest others to have a look. Sorry Apple users, this is only written for Windows OS. Anyone who would like the source code to port to Apple is welcome to, just email me.
Great start,
recognizing zero budget constraints but!
Moves a little slow for AV presentation, people can absorb more information with a faster delivery for AV presentations.
vocal audio gets a bit lost under music at times and the music sucks, vocal also has some distortion in places that causes words to be lost.
A Superlearning style format may be appropriate.
I would be glad to contribute to any AV project, I have a small music recording studio and half a dozen multimedia computers with various softwares for music, movie and animation production, no skill with visual side of production but my niece makes movies (she's 17 and wants to become a film director). Leave an email at this thread if interested and I will reply. (I'm zealous about my cyber-privacy)
Great idea and I think I would be able to help you out as well. I do CG and animation (for almost 10 years), so I could help you with the "V" part of the AV projects Lucifer mentioned. ;)
I think the speed is OK, all he has to do is limit the music to the beginning and end (not have music playing during voice-overs), and use a decent microphone for the voice-overs. Other than the sound quality, the video is great.
Great idea - should bring the ideas here to a wider audience!
Excellent work!
Great work Luis, lol you would put ridiculous jazz for the music.
-Crews
Somehow I expected the theme from 2001 :)
Me too ;) and yes, good demo, and thanks XL. BUT this is way to important a presentation to let it in "demo" stage! There must be plenty of lurkers out there to produce a professional finish at "pro bono" effort !?! With all the information you guys produce, you definitively merit support in the multimedia department !!!!!
...and just daydreaming: maybe Super G can set up one of those new "Google sites" for a collaborative WWW effort? On my wish list: voiceovers in other than English language. German, Spanish, Italian, French... need to feed a few non English speaking VIP's with that...
Anyone out there to help ?
....well, I guess, so much for the power of the Internet.
Luis, would it be possible to get your movie presentation:
a) as a HQ DivX / Xvid download from somewhere in the following format:
b) 1 version without the soundtrack
c) 1 version without voiceover and without soundtrack
Thank you. If I can do something on my side, of course everyone else will be able to see it, with your approval.
Sun
Luis and TOD;
I think it's a great medium to use as so many people are keyed to Sound or Picture to take in information, as opposed to reading. That said, I will mention a bit of my perspective as a Cameraman and Editor, in the hope that it gives you thoughts on how you might approach this medium.
Use visuals, if you can, that tell a basic concept very quickly. Think like cartoonists (or just use cartoons, as appropriate) The Charts are supportive, but beyond the x and y of a graph, visuals are very powerful ways to reveal relationships and solidify abstract concepts quickly. The adage of a 'picture = 1000 words' is as much about how long it takes to tell as it is about pagespace consumed ..
A small note about this edit (part one, anyway).. is that the Music needs to be lower in the Background, as Luis' (?) voice is soft and accented, so I had a tough time sticking with him. I clicked back to the blog thinking I'd just read the same info 'under the fold' a little easier.
Do feel free to contact me directly if you are working on one of these, and would allow me to preview the script and suggest imagery, simple (flash) animation or stock footage perhaps that let me back up these generalizations with suggestions.
I know there are other filmmakers, Camerapeople and Graphic Artists (Leanan?) on the site who are also able to help in this regard. Video and Film works very impressionistically, IMO, and can be very effective at communicating at levels and in languages that 'hard, cold facts' may not penetrate very well.
"Art is the lie that tells the truth" (if you want it to, and are good - and lucky)
Bob Fiske
Nice. Fantastic music. I was disappointed you didn't provide music credits at the end.
Fabulous. Please don't take my comments as other than constructive.
As an educator teaching English as a Foreign Language, let me echo the issues with regard to the voice over. I am accustomed to "interpreting" non-native English and struggled at times. If production values remain an issue, then it might be worthwhile to get a more standard accent for the voice over. Apologies to, I assume, Luis for this point, but if newbs get lost they will tune out. They are your target audience, so...
Second, it was mentioned above as the video being "slow." You don't want to lose the attention of your audience, particularly if a new one. You can cut nearly two minutes off the front of the first one just with the intro. I'd cut it all or make the transitions much, much faster. You can do this whole thing under YouTube's 10 minute limit and avoid having to split the video. I understand the point being made with the graphics of the intro, but think a faster and more effective approach might be the Saudi camel>car>airplane>camel saying quote. Or, perhaps shorten down the graphics display time to a 3 - 5 seconds total and add in the saying to add a more modern twist to the same cycle.
Third, you may want to remove the Google version. I tried that first, but the graphics were too blurry in the larger format. That's a format issue, I assume, so can probably be fixed?
Fourth, there is a point in the first where you give an equation. I suggest you add that slide in. Most won't know the math and and how to write it out, nor do they, even if they do know it, want to be bothered with stopping to grab pen and paper. If it's in the video you can just pause to copy it down. I realize it's in the original, but the KISS principle always applies.
Cheers
Have to agree with ccpo, but just one other thing and that is the music is superfluous and for me was very distracting, none the less a very valuable contribution and I thank you for that.
If you like I can put a broadcast quality voice over together.
I generally agree. This is a very interesting idea.
I'm not sure what resources you have and thus what is (or is not) possible here, but I'll mention one problem in understanding that most people will encounter, and that is that they don't have a clue what "Olduvai" refers to (including me when I first heard this theory). Where is Olduvai Gorge, and why is this theory of Duncan's called "Olduvai" theory? People tend to drop out quickly if there's something seemingly critical to the discussion (like, in the title!) that they don't understand. The name "Olduvai" is prominent, but it is mysterious, unexplained, just appears out of nowhere.
An explanation wouldn't have to be long. Something like this:
(Graphic of a primitive human being) The Olduvai Gorge is commonly referred to as "The Cradle of Mankind." (Picture of Olduvai Gorge, maybe with archeologists poring over bones or something like that) It's an archaeological site located in the eastern Serengeti Plains, which is in northern Tanzania. (Music, Thus Spake Zarathustra intro as in 2001) In the late 20th century Richard Duncan (photo of Duncan?) came up with this theory emphasizing the brevity of industrial civilization and that human history might return to Olduvai Gorge sooner than we think. (Graph of fossil fuel "blip.") The era of fossil fuels and thus all of industrial civilization (picture of buildings, man on moon?) would be all too brief, just about 100 years. He called his theory "Olduvai theory." But is Duncan's "Olduvai theory" correct? (Etc. etc. I'm not sure of the accuracy of the comments about Duncan, this just gives you the kind of thing that a listener would accept as an explanation.)
It doesn't have to be lengthy, but I think you'll increase your audience about 20-30% by explaining this briefly up front, perhaps in lieu of the long introduction where nothing much happens.
Keith
ccpo, I generally agree with your comments. I think you and jokuhl focused most of the problems.
Apart form my eerie accent I had some difficulties capturing the sound of my voice properly. My laptop continuously inserts background noise (besides the dirac) no matter what microphone I use. I was forced to use a noise filter that unfortunately degraded some of my words. With someone speaking conventional English, this might not have happened.
The program I used to normalize the music wasn't that good, in some places the music sounds loud and in others sounds too low.
Hopefully we'll be able to solve all these issues in future.
Hi Luis,
Actually, given your explanation I'd say your accent is not an issue. With all the people willing to chip in on production, I expect the next version or next video to truly exceptional.
Cheers
It's just the equivalent of talking over charts and graphs, and with a bad accent at that "equating = ekyoo-waiting??". Subjectmatter aside, it's boring. Check out "What a Way to Go" if you want to see how to make something low budget that grabs your attention.
I think its a GREAT start. Luis has worked very hard on this. He couldnt afford to get someone without an accent, or with better musical taste, but took the time to put a technical piece to voice/music. We get a good deal of readers here, but I think we could reach more with cartoons/movies/ etc. Is that an objective? I'm not sure. But I know a good deal of friends of mine that 'promise' to read posts on theoildrum but never actually do.
Steep discount rates are in our genes. Some more than others. The decisionmakers caught up in the rat race are people least able to absorb reading a 40 minute treatise on energy. A 5-10 minute video might be more palatable.
(I just read the paper "CARPE DIEM: ADAPTATION AND DEVALUING THE FUTURE " by Martin Daly and Margo Wilson discussing our evolved reasons for being 'impulsive'. It struck me, that across species, that females (via the mechanism of larger sexual investment), have more moderate discount rates. In a wider and very real way, I think the problems of climate change and peak oil should have more women calling the shots. I half-jokingly made this suggestion in a post last year but now I actually believe it has merit. I'll try and write something on it - but the point here is that Luis is on to something. We live in a culture that values time above all else. If the objective of theoildrum is to corner the truth, and expand the community of awareness of energy problems moving toward energy solutions, perhaps we need faster media than reading words and graphs....Its an open question
But good job Luis. I for one, could never have done it. (And i WOULD have chosen Thus Spak Zarathustra as the theme...;-)
are you saying we should have women run around naked with peak oil written across their breast? Now that's peak oil awareness. I'm trying to create an interesting, simple but thorough presentation to present to some city councils. I'm creating a grass-roots peak oil campaign at my college flyer's chalk but I'm hoping the documentary "crude awakening" will do for peak oil what "an inconvenient truth" did for global warming. I think we could learn from the mainstream integration of global warming and make a peak oil message with a less statistical junkie more layman friendly swing. Well, we do have to still have the statistical analysis though to back up everything so it won't fall under scrutiny. I suspect HXC cornucopian's will hold out till everything hits the fan though. Just as AGW deniers will hold out till people start going all raiders of the lost arc eyeball melting, lol.
No, Im not saying that at all. I guess what Im saying is almost heretical, but I think the world would be a better place if the majority of policymakers (politicians) were women. I will research this concept further and write something up - I can't be the first with this idea...
Lol, I kinda figured, just joking. Interesting thought, go for it, I really like your psychology minded articles. I think it was you that did the article with the large picture of the man on the woman with the car superimposed over her face. On, a random note, I think it is interesting to note that Cornicopians are always from cornicopias, ever heard of a somolian talking about the wonders of growth and happiness?
Majority woman decision making is a very good thought that I have been pushing in my small circle for decades (I am male). Go on Nate, quantify it.
I just have to mention the obligatory counter-example:
Margaret Thatcher.
Arrrrrghhhh!
Yep, you got my vote, Nate !
History would seem to support you, as does psychology. Matriarchal societies tend to be more peaceful than patriarchal. Psychologically this is attributed to the female tendency to communicate and to problem solve via relationships rather than power structures. Is that due to the mothering instinct? Maybe.
No links. University was a hell of a long time ago. An example: The Iriquois. They of the large, relatively peaceful federation. I've also read about a South American tribe that was matriarchal wherein there was a lot of mixing of sexual partners and no family units with regard to men. Nobody knew whose child was whose, so the men treat all the children of the village the same.
Etc.
As always, balance is good. We don't need to flip the thing over, we just need to equalize it.
Cheers
In my experience if the World was run by women we would have a war every few months.
Make that about every 27 days... :{
Well, I must say that every few months or 27 days is quite an improvemnet over warfare ALL THE TIME!
His pronunciation is very good, actually. Intonation, too, but a little off here and there (as expected). Ditto rhythm and stress. The last, however, is actually the most important. So, he didn't need an unaccented voice, he needed it to be heard clearly. Through most of the video it can be, but not all. It's a matter of balance. The music isn't important to the piece, though video without it seems strange to us sometimes because we're all so accustomed to soundtracks from movies and TV.
There are three choices: a clearer speaker, better mixing or different music in places. I found the faster music distracting.
Cheers
I don't how you can say those things, I'm the person with the best musical taste I know of .
For the folks who asked for the credits, the movie features music by:
Gateway 2
Soft Machine
Hawkwind
The music choice I thought was pretty good, levels were unfortunately high, and I agree that a native English speaker would help this. Its an excellent prototype, you've got some volunteers above including someone who can do broadcast quality voice - please go through, tighten it up with the offers of help & taking critiques into account, and then re-release. I'll do a diary on this for DailyKos and make sure it gets attention, there'll be a front page appearance on http://strandedwind.org, etc, etc.
I think this makes the concept accessible to those who won't wade through ponderous posts on the topic ... its a very nice effort.
That's a false conclusion. It only applies to English accents with which *you* would be familiar. Clear the sound, drop the music level. Done.
Cheers
I was kidding!!
Cuz I know how sensitive you are about your music. I really thought that intro song was an obscure version of Rush' La Villa Strangiatio. never heard of Gateway 2.
Hawkwind rocks man!!
(i'm kidding there too.)
Nice video.
(On a sidenote: why were my posts deleted the other day in the original Olduvai thread? We had a nice conversation going on about the energy intensity of the GDP vs. energy efficiency, there was not a single offensive word... I don't get it.)
Eastender, the editors decided last month that anyone demonstrably from the 'east' or with the word 'east' in their moniker, would have their comments deleted.
(I'm just being silly..;-)
If a post has over 300 comments, it has to spill onto a second page, which you can find a link to on the bottom of the first page.
Your comments are alive and well:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3565?page=1
Thx for answering. Silly me. :-)
OK, it's high time I gave some additional information. As you pointed out I'm from the east. In particular: Hungary, Eastern-Europe.
I was about writing you an e-mail, but I'll give some more details before doing so. I've been following TOD for over a year now. I got introduced to the subject via Duncan's Olduvai Theory at dieoff dot org which I visited searching for something else on google. (Unsustainable was the keyword.) From dieoff I got redirected to Matt Savinar's site, latoc. It was a relatively easy ride from there to TOD.
I have an education in both science (university of medicine with heavy interest in chemistry, molecular biology and biophysics) and economics (a second degree) and I'm involved in several so-called 'technology breakthrough' projects that all have their drawbacks as readers of this sire wll know. I'm a key member of a Hungarian algae oil project and at the same time I give perspective to some other fields that intend to rely on improvement in nanotechnology.
I'll give you further details via e-mail in case you're interested.
However, I had some other thoughts in mind when I was entertaining the thought of writing to you. As far as I know there is no ASPO Hungary and I'm not sure there is ASPO Eastern Europe. We have several people interested in establishing such a branch in my country. Furthermore, I'm almost 100% positive that energy intensity of the GDP cannot and should not be translated as energy efficiency. I wanted to work out a model for you that you may post or guest-post.
So there are several issues at hand, and I've been reading and thinking enough in the last few years to finally come out of the woods and give a clear sign regarding my whereabouts.
What do you think?
I'm sorry. Much as I like TOD, I could not bear that film beyond the halfway point.
There is an art to informative presentations. While I like the videos, a lot of people that are not into it want a short and sweet version. Look at all the sound bites and short attention spans people have these days. A mass consumption version might condense things to the highlights only. Most excellent first effort though, it shows what can be done when someone just does it.
Not a very useful critique, bro.
Bob
I really could not care less what you think...bro.