42 comments on The limit of the statistic R/P in models of oil discovery and production
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
I used a simple model, not differentiating between proven and possible reserves, so the analysis would also be simpler. Maybe my analysis could also be applied to your reserve function, but the Shock model described in your link looks a lot more complicated than just using R(t)= CumulativeDiscovery(t) - Scaled_and_shifted_CumulativeDiscovery(t).
Are there models where possible reserves either change to proven reserves or disappear, possibly randomly?
Hi Dudley,
For U.S. oil, the simplest model for the EIA reserves is just 10 times the production in that year. That number is within 20% of the actual reserves for the last 50 years.
For coal, the pattern is different. Countries typically carry unrealistically large reserves, until someone in a resources agency decides that there are no good prospects for new mines. Then the reserves to collapse to the coal that is accessible at working mines. For example, German bituminous coal reserves were reported as 23Gt in the 2001 World Energy Council Survey, but in the next Survey in 2004, they dropped to 183Mt.
Dave
That's interesting. So for oil R/P is about 10 but for coal R/P jumps around. Does it jump around some median value in a white noise or Gaussian kind of way. In Deffeyes' book he uses anthracite coal (I think) as an example which does follow a Hubbert-type curve.
Hi Dudley,
Here is PA anthracite, with the cumulative and the gaussian fits. The reserves are indicated by circles. The reserves are too high, and they do not come down until too late.
Dave
DAve