118 comments on Fatih Birol Presents the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007
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The shape of things to come? Consumption crashing ahead of production - in order to maintain export status. Which part of the ELM was it that forecast this?
Hey, I can hardly see that yellow bit in 2007 ;)
That's what the ELM is all about: things get ugly when consumption growth and production growth have oposite signs (and the first is positive).
Euan,
Are you sure you are not trying to support the ELM here? In any case, note that we don't have the final 2007 data yet. The EIA shows Indonesia (I believe a founding member of OPEC) at about 65,000 bpd net imports for 2005 and 2006.
As I have said elsewhere, whether some exporters maintain some low level of net exports or whether they actually precisely hit zero net exports and stay there is not really relevant to the big picture. What is going to torpedo the SS World Industrial Economy is the first 50% decline in world net exports.
In any case, in what I have described as the Phase One net export decline, I anticipate that their cash flow from export sales will increase, even as export volumes decline, because of rising oil prices.
Regardless of scale, in a world with increasingly tight supplies this seems like a huge problem. The graph above is pretty chilling if you ask me.
I wonder, do you have a similar graph for Saudi Arabia currently? It might give us an idea if it is following a similar trend to Indonesia.
I don't have Saudi to hand, but UAE is a good proxy. The danger with UAE is not rising consumption but falling production in the next 2 decades. Exports only begin exponential decline when the ratio of exports : production becomes small.
Thanks for this! I would expect UAE to be a lot closer to Saudi in any case.
See my post down the thread. Saudi Arabia will almost certainly show an accelerating net export decline rate from 2006 to 2007 versus 2005 to 2006; the only question is what the number is. We will have to see what happens in 2008.
Here's a recent article that also addresses this issue: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/09/business/oil.php.
Most notably:
"The economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market."
"Indonesia has already made this flip. By some projections, the same could happen within five years to Mexico, the No. 2 source of foreign oil for the United States, and soon after that to Iran, the world's fourth-largest exporter."
"The report said "soaring internal rates of oil consumption" in Russia, in Mexico and in member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce crude exports as much as 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade."