212 comments on The high potential of plug-in hybrids
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I suspect that the plug-in hybrid won't add that mcuh to the equation. In the end it will mean more coal burning as we are not going to solar ourselves out of this. In fact an energy audit on solar is overdue. Solar's cost suggest that it has the same problem as ethanol. I have a friend who is buying a 3kw solar PV system. The true cost is $30 a watt.
$30/Watt is the purchase cost, not the lifetime operating cost.
At current electricity prices, a PV panel with a 'lifetime' rating of 30 years (where lifetime = 80% of original rating) might just pay itself off, financially, but I'm willing to bet that electricity prices won't be staying anywhere near current levels.
It depends on a number of factors. I'm deploying hundreds of peak KW of PV in West Africa with an economic payback of 3-5 years. The payback is calculated against using diesel generators - the only viable alternative for rural, off grid electricity.
$30/watt isn't even the purchase cost.
"The true cost is $30 a watt."
Wow! Your friend is really over paying. Most people are paying well under $10/watt. And, of course, that cost will go down quickly in time, as supply catches up with demand. New PV cells are costing $.50 - $2.50, and still falling. Much of the $7-8 that people are paying is a scarcity premium and inefficient installation.
We could solar ourselves out of this with third generation photovoltaics -- extremely thin film solar cells printed using printing press technology. Nanosolar and others are building the production infrastructure right now. A single new plant will produce 430 MW of generating capacity per year at 33 cents per watt production cost.