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Luis, one of my contacts at UK BERR (formerly DTI) sent me this link this morning:
http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file41844.pdf?
Its a pretty long and comprehensive report at 119 pages - enough material for a couple of posts that you may consider having ready for next week:-)
This report and others can be accessed via the BERR web site - so this is public domain:
http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/energymarketsoutlook/gas/page41850.html
BERR have commissioned many good studies on European gas. However, a common theme seems to be "got pipes, got gas".
This chart from the Global Insight report is a good example:
Jean's chart presents a very different and IMO more realistic looking picture:
Jerome says that Zapolyarnoye has been developed and Yuzhno-Russkoye has also just recently started production. Thus far these fields look as though they are compensating for decline in Yamburg and Urengoy. Its a pretty big and important question to answer - will Russia be able to double exports in the next 20 years as suggested by GI or will exports remain fairly static?
....from the report:
-so Europe requires 130 and there are currently -what 190? and at peak we can make 68 per year (in itself an amazing fact given the size of these things!!)
If we say we need to triple global LNG shipments by 2015 that's a new capacity of (190 x 2) / 7 = ~54 ships/year...
So given shipyard production capacity it can be done.
Nick.
I don't know here did you got those 64 ships per year. There are but a handful of shipyards in the world that build LNG tankers and together they have been managing to build about 20 per year.
Luis,
those figures came from the UK DTI report linked to above. I didn't verify them though.
I seem to recall it mention 12 shipyards capable of making them. I must admit the figure seemed on the high side given the size of these things. In addition vessel capacity is increasing reducing overall required numbers. Build costs have also increased.
Nick.
The DTI report talk of orders, not ships built...
Even with 12 shipyards that would meant more than 5 ships built every year per shipyard. I don't know if this is possible.