The Oil Drum: Europe

Cannot find much on the geology.

Just this so far.

http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2007/11/19/business-week-brazil-the-new-oi...

For one, the oil lies some 4.5 miles beneath the ocean’s surface. To reach it, Petrobras will have to run lines through 7,000 feet of water and then drill up to 17,000 feet through sand, rock, and a massive salt layer. A decade ago, geologists lacked the tools to glimpse beneath these salt layers, which can be more than a mile thick offshore Brazil. Today, with the help of data-crunching supercomputers, 3D imaging of ultradeep subsalt layers is illuminating billions of barrels of new oil. Geologists say the discoveries challenge one of the notions of the peak oil theory, which claims oil companies already have found nearly all of the world’s usable oil.

Note the snide dig at peak oil.

This bit is interesting:

Geologist Roberto Fainstein, whose seismic imaging work at oil-field services company Schlumberger helped Brazil to discover its massive new reserves, says the subsalt find will “lead to a rush in this kind of drilling worldwide.” Brazil’s discovery may quicken subsalt drilling in the Gulf of Mexico by oil majors and Mexico’s state-run oil giant Pemex. A salt layer offshore West African countries including Angola, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea is “virtually identical to Brazil’s,” Fainstein says, “so companies will race to begin drilling it.”

What to say?
1. Well first of all congratulations to Petrobras and the People of Brazil!
2. Eight billion is nice and handy, but it is not big (just big by modern standards)
3. Maybe more on both sides of the Atlantic and some possibly useful finds in the future
4. Massive technical challenges and costs.
5. Although anti Peakists will use this as ‘evidence’ that PO is not here, Tupi changes nothing in reality. By the time Tupi oil is flowing, Production flows elsewhere will have dropped, offsetting Tupi gains.

Paulah:
For size comparisons go here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_fields

Ghawar is an outlier. It's like “huge”. The reservoir is almost an aberration.

The probability to find something like it again is zero. To put it in contest, another field like Ghawar would cut in half the “yet to find” reserves, from 200 Gb to 100 Gb.

As I recall, Prudhoe Bay was ~13 GB, half again the estimated size of Tupi, and this in an onshore operation without the deepwater technological challenges.

I can see, at least in the first few years after the first oil gets flowing, a process similar to that which has taken place with Thunderhorse. Production by fits and starts as the realities of each challenge are met and resolved - or not.

It will be an interesting process given the 'limits of technology' and also that as the next few years go by a number of chaotic things will be happening including crazy oil prices and technological and logistical bottlenecks.