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If production goes up 1% in a GOOD month, that really doesn't matter when China's economy is growing @ 10%. In fact, it is utterly trivial.
Secondly, the whole talk about 'demand destruction' is highly speculative and dubious. Again, China's demand hasn't dropped and grows like a Behemoth. It is irrelevant if the US demand is flat or falls ever-so-slightly.
So debating about the 'peak' is rather bogus. We can all agree that world oil production has PLATEAUED. And meanwhile, the global economy, particularly China, continues to see enormous growth.
The price of oil will continue to rise in a volatile fashion. One disruption of supply at this point and the joke will be on those old timers who rest on the convenient assumptions of the past. They got through this month, but now the story is finally out of the bag. Even so, Pelosi et al just cut any support for alternative energy; we can see the writing on the wall: Bring it on!
Disaster capitalism is like being drunk and playing high-stakes poker! You only feel sorry the next day.
IMHO, debating the evidence for the date of crude + condensate production is very important. Government policy makers will likely take decisive action only after the peak is obvious. Likewise for consumers worldwide.
Well perhaps that is a concensus on this board, but there are arguments that due to enhanced oil recovery technology, especially in offshore fields, the decline may accelerate after the peak, and its effects magnified for importing countries by the Export Land Model.