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Let's assume that by "the economy" they mean "the production and distribution of goods and services".
Let's also say that, theoretically, we live in a world where said production, distribution, goods, and services are significantly systemically dependent on plastic, lubricants, ships, trucks, pesticides, and pharmaceuticals that are made with or are powered by oil.
Now let's pretend that if we keep the production of oil constant while the population grows, and that the population has needs that must be filled by a petroleum dependent infrastructure, that economic activity will be adversely impacted.
Now fantasize that impeded economic activity could be represented by an oil price that was rapidly increasing in relation to all other prices, while oil production remained constant.
We could then posit that the Saudis are blowing sunshine up our collective asses because they can't admit they can't increase production.
Hypothetically speaking, of course.
Hmm the could tentatively increase oil production for a few months to see if demand exists.
If prices fall then cut back again. This is not hard to do.
If prices remain high increase again.
Close to 100 dollar oil indicates a lot of pent up demand may exist at slightly lower prices. If the price falls to 80 but your selling twice as much I can't see the problem.
The problem I have is trying to not be pessimistic and take what they are saying at face value and believing them.
I tried to do that with the subprime is contained message and I just couldn't do it. The same for this I cannot even figure out a reasonable way to treat these statements as something close to realistic.
Memmel,
prices have trippled in the last two years, and some pretty good prognosticators are suggesting they will tripple again in the next two years, while other oil prophets are suggesting that prices will return to the $30-$40 level. Meanwhile, people like you or I attempt to rationally interpret the effects of supply and demand when we have no effect on either or even real time data on supply and consumption. We're attempting palmistry on the Invisible Hand!
LOL. great line.