71 comments on £1 per Litre Petrol Drives Peak Oil on Mainstream TV
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Can anyone shed any light on where they've got the number of 122 million barrels forecast demand by 2015 (which is the number claimed in the graphic and by the newscaster). This seems waaaay off any sensible projection - the IEA's Medium Term Oil Market Report (as released in July) forecasts demand of 95.8 million barrels by 2012 (it doesn't go out further than that). This is clearly not in sync with 122 by 2015. Or, looked at another way - to go from 85 million barrels to 122 million barrels in 8 years (2015 being only 8 years away!) would require an annual growth rate of 4.6%. This does not seem credible either - not even consdering whether that amount would be AVAILABLE, it doesn't seem sensible as a demand forecast.
Perhaps they meant 2025?
Shame to see such a glaring error in the UK mainstream TV's debut of the Peak Oil Threat!
Cuchulainn
The IEA publish a number of scenarios, I suspect the 122 Mb figure is from the High Growth scenario.
Hi Bob,
No - it doesn't even seem to fit that bill - oil demand in the High Scenario in 2015 is something like 100 mm bbls (from memory - I read it earlier today but can't find the place I read it). I think the number is actually a 2025 number in the High Growth scenario
Cuchulainn
Could be, I am pretty confused now, I have seen all sorts of numbers floating about.
We need someone to get that report!
BTW, The executive summary is here [pdf].
Here is my interpretation of what is wrong with the numbers in that presentation: Currently we use say 86Mbpd. They came up with 122Mbpd by 2015. That's in 7 years. So the magic number here is 37Mbpd. This can't be the amount of demand growth expect as it's over 5Mbpd per year, if averaged. Seems pretty unlikely. Lets say 102Mbpd is more likely, given IEA forecast about 96 Mbpd in 2012. That is 16Mbpd more than we use now.
And here is the key: declines in production from existing Fields in Production. At say 4% per year thats in the ballpark of about 3 Mbpd per year so we will lose 21 Mbpd of production in that time.
So, hey presto, come 2015 we need 16 + 21 = 37Mbpd of NEW production to just get us to 102Mbpd in 2015. By mistake, whoever wrote the number for that piece has simply added the 37 to 85 and forgotten to subtract the 21. [These are very rough numbers I have used just to illustrate the point]
Hi TheMagus,
Really good interpretation. I hope the program researcher/writer is reading TOD. Perhaps they will issue a correction - along with an explanation.
One thing (of several) that bothered me about the presentation re: all those "green" (was it?) countries not yet in decline - there was no explanation of the relative amounts produced by those in decline v. those yet to roll over.
If we assume that the final peak was actually in 2005, then by 2015 (just 7 years away), even if it is a flat-plateau type peak as some hyper-optimists claim we are going to get, that shows a shortfall of ~20mbd in total liquids for a world BAU economic scenario (around a 20% shortfall!!!)
We are already around 5mbd below an IEA BAU scenario, there must be recession somewhere in the world ... no wonder Birol is starting to sweat!
BTW, peak total liquids is not the problem ... peak 'net-exports' is!!!
When MSM, and especially politicians, start talking 'net exports' then I'll know we're getting somewhere - you can't even start to fix a problem until you define exactly what it is.
But the MSM don't understand that even net exports is but one symptom of a much bigger problem ... when will we see that mentioned?
Xeroid.
This just in:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/11/08/brazil.oil.ap/index.html
That's one green country that might be greener still.
This find closely follows the trend, significantly more difficult to get to.
It might fuel the world for another 60 days or so - heroic engineering though - very nearly a depth of four and a half miles!
Xeroid.
According to EIA statistics ... http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.htm
in 2006 ...
there were ...
42 'net exporters', with average total exports of 45.424 mpd
of these ...
35 have either peaked or are at a peak plateau, producing on average 37.240 mpd
that leaves ...
just 7 countries that are yet to peak, producing on average 8.184 mbd
The top 16 make up 90% of total net exports and their exports peaked in 2005.
http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/
In the two years or so since peak their net exports have declined about 5%
Between 2000 and 2006 the production of the 171 'net importer' countries fell 4.2% to 20.872 mpd
Any net growth in production (for BAU around 2% is required) will first have to counter the 'net importer' declines and the 'net exporter' declines.
IMO the most likely place for adequate future growth (if any) is likely to come from countries where current adverse 'above ground' factors are removed or from the 7 'net export' countries yet to peak.
The 7 are:
United Arab Emirates, Libya, Angola, Kazakhstan, Canada,Azerbaijan and Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast).
Xeroid.
Thanks Xeroid,
This is very nice and succint.
Don't know where they got that (and I looked) but I suspect it's another outdated B.S. estimate by IEA forecasting a "50% growth in demand by 2015" or some such nonsense.
This falls in line nicely with item #877 from the November newsletter from ASPO-Ireland (Campbell), which addressed the "Appalling Ignorance by the British Government" over peak oil. Apparently they are still referencing a 2005 IEA report asserting that supply will continue to meet demand...even after IEA has admitted in its 2007 report that supply will likely not meet demand. Campbell suggests that rather than a deliberate attempt to mislead, this is in fact a "doctrinaire flat-earth ignorance" on the part of the British government.
--C
Energy consultant, writer, blogger www.getreallist.com