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139 comments on The Shape of Oil to Come

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Khebab on October 12, 2007 - 11:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was looking at your last figure with a 8% decline and I was thinking: why not exploring a range of possible decline rates and take the one that is giving the best match between the bottom-up analysis and recent production levels for C+C? a kind of maximum likelihood parameter estimation, I wonder what value it would give?

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jkissing on October 12, 2007 - 1:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I too think comparing Chris past predictions with his great mega projects studies, plus a comparison of predicted new projects vs. delays, would be very useful in calculating a current world decline rate. Roughly, if Chris has been expecting 1Mb/d more each year, and if we are actually flat/down a bit, then his number for world decline (4.5%?) should be adjusted upward, say to 5.5% or so. Unfortunately, it looks like the rate is accelerating...

Why don't you take a stab at it?

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Khebab on October 12, 2007 - 2:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's a good idea, looking at Figure 8 it looks like the decline rate should be more around 7-10%.

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