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139 comments on The Shape of Oil to Come

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Bob Wallace on October 11, 2007 - 8:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

When I look at your first two graphs (the horizontal axis on the third one is too compressed to easily read) it appears that we are likely to have as much oil in ~2020 as we do now.

How is consumption projected to change over that 10+ year period? How many new vehicles on the road and how much more/less efficient might those vehicles be?

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Rembrandt on October 12, 2007 - 5:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

When I look at your first two graphs (the horizontal axis on the third one is too compressed to easily read) it appears that we are likely to have as much oil in ~2020 as we do now.

Correct, whether that will be the ultimate outcome is unknown, but this simple exercise shows that this could happen.

How is consumption projected to change over that 10+ year period? How many new vehicles on the road and how much more/less efficient might those vehicles be?

I cannot say, that requires some analysis on what type of vehicles can come on the road at what pace. Probably quite somewhat more vehicles on the road thanks to the development of electric cars, biofuels and more efficient vehicles.

The question I find more intruiging is where these vehicles will be driving ;-)

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139 comments on The Shape of Oil to Come

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