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I can't say that I agree with you. Higher prices equals more motivation to mitigate and change lifestyles. If the government starts to send the signals that everything will be just OK, cause the gov is backing you up with lowering taxes, it may work out very well for the first years, but then you will end up pretty unprepared for what is to come.
Exactly, where's the thing not to like? We must ALL move out from FFs. The nations that do this first will be more prepared to face the uncoming crisis than the ones which don't.
So it's a matter of sight. If your sight is about 5 years long, tax increase is wrong. If your sight is about 20 years long, tax increase is the right move. It's like chess. What they did was to sacrifice a pawn. Seems stupid, but only to the ones who don't know how to play chess, as in the next 20 moves, it will strike as a brilliant move.
Well it would be, if the sacrifice was harder. Even so, it sends a clear message: you people are on your own, so start mitigating. Start conserving. Stop SUVing. etc. I'm all for it.
Planning horizons for most political, business and individual psyches are about 3 years, with attention falling off markedly after that.
Thus the evidence as seen in others (the US in particular) failing because of ever rising prices will have much more effect than the threat of it in future in some arbitrary future.
The model I've outlined is in effect a smoothing function on the transition between a supply-rich and a supply-constrained world. Less shock, more attenuation of the change to match the rate at which people can adapt. Trying to make the system bend and not break.
The worst thing is if the tax is not reduced at the right time and right amount. Keeping the tax high as oil price rises push it even higher will cripple business and prevent investment in alternatives. As companies go out of business individuals won't be able to afford to invest - and basically the system breaks.