102 comments on More on the Systematics of Hubbert Linearisation
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Um, to the best of my knowledge, they are raising the quota, not 'production' - OPEC's members have an extremely long track record of never producing within the set quota, it is at least possible to see this new quota as merely attempting to reconciling the numbers on paper with what is actually being produced. In Great Britain, the process is currently running in reverse - the numbers in such things as revenue for the government budget are being revised downwards - but the same trend can be seen. Reality is starting to overtake all the projections.
Of course, a lot of people here are over the top, and the looming American economic train wreck certainly plays its role in OPEC planning - except strangely, isn't this the sort of situation where traditionally OPEC would be cutting production, to ensure a stable price?
And yet, the price keeps rising, even as 'production' keeps rising.
A real puzzle - though some pieces are missing, it does seem as if a certain pattern can be seen - higher prices, no increase in real production from a number of former exporters (like the UK), and no noticeable increase in export production from countries like KSA or Russia (Russia remaining a puzzle wrapped in an enigma).
Of course, maybe Angola is the new Saudi Arabia, but I'm not holding my breath.
This is how peak looks - we will know if it is in a couple of more years, regardless of anyone's opinions.
The news made it quite clear that they are raising the quota by 1.4 million, and raising production by 500,000 to meet the new quota. So no, they are not just raising the quota and keeping production flat. I sense that they don't intend to raise production by this amount, however.
I haven't the interest to wade through the thickets, but does the statement's details include Angola being brought into the system (or how Angola's expected ramp up in production is to be accounted)? How about Iraq's declining production, which is not subject to quota? Or Saudi Aramco's now confirmed reduced output?
There is a lot of very imprecise data, and much of it is not readily accessible anyways - the call for transparency is actually just the start of beginning to actually figure out what is going on, and then how to deal with it.
However, rising price in the face of flat production does seem to indicate certain shifts in the oil market, ones best explained by geology, in my opinion.
I have little attachment to any particular model or method - to me, peak oil is measured by what is coming out of the pipeline, and these days, it is less than a year ago, and not significantly higher, even as the price seems to have undergone an approximate doubling, since the amount of oil being produced flattened 2005.
In Iraq the oil pipeline meters have been shut off since the invasion, so nobody can say how much oil has left Iraq or where it went. But I bet America had a hand in deciding how much and where.