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There is not substitute to oil for transports except synthetic oil
Yes there is !
http://www.energybulletin.net/31824.html
Best Hopes for Understanding Alternatives,
Alan
Alan,
Obviously we are talking here of energy vector substitutes for current systems. Electricity, although possibly a better and more lasting vector, implies major infrastructure changes - as you know better than anyone.
Not as major as you think.
Electrifying existing railroads is, quite frankly, not that big a deal in the scope of other solutions suggested. (even South Africa, with all of their problems, has electrified 1,600 km of their main rail line with more to come).
An electric railroad works like a diesel railroad, except it accelerates & brakes faster. It is really not a "new system".
Adding back tracks torn up 30 or so years ago is also not a "big deal" compared to Tar Sands or other alternatives.
Building significant amounts of Urban Rail could be done with the current new highway budget.
Increasing bicycling requires trivial new resources. And electric trolley buses have lower life cycle costs than diesel buses.
Best Hopes for Expanding the View of What is Possible and Easily Doable,
Alan
PHEV's will require very little infrastructure. 90% of vehicle owners have off-street parking, and could just plug them in.
Hmm, that you're only aiming for 10% cut in 10 years doesn't sound nearly ambitious enough.
As high a cut would surely be more simply acheived by fuel economy improvements: after all, the Europeans already have an average fuel economy nearly 50% higher than the U.S., implying a 30% cut in oil usage, so if a third of Americans collectively upgraded to vehicles that averaged European fuel economy ratings over the next 10 years, that's an 10% cut right there.
Of course, combine the two, and you've got a 20% reduction in 10 years...which might be just enough to keep up with oil import depletion rates.
-10% is a conservative, quite defensible estimate under a modest decline in world oil exports. A modified BAU situation.
Rail has elasticity of supply. The worse things get, the more people and freight it can move (to upper limits).
And once we start building it, we can build more faster. The savings in the second ten years will be larger than the first ten years.
It is a "silver BB", not a silver bullet. Hummers will have to go ! Do this and other steps to mitigate post-Peak Oil.
Best Hopes,
Alan
In some ways I see "electrification of transport" in general, including replacing all private vehicles with PHEVs and EVs, and of course electrification of mass transit (heavy and light rail), as the only realistic way to allow civilisation to continue without oil.
In that sense, it is "the silver bullet". But calling it that might convey the impression that it means little has to change, whereas of course in reality, it means massive change, over many many decades...although, it must be said, not necessarily any more massive than the amount of change that happened throughout the either half of the 20th Century.
I see "electrification of transport" in general, including replacing all private vehicles with PHEVs and EVs, and of course electrification of mass transit (heavy and light rail), as the only realistic way to allow civilisation to continue without oil
Grenoble France is working towards a walk + bicycle + tram (+ TGV for longer distances) solution. I think that bicycles (including electric bikes, especially for elderly) can take a larger role than EVs.
But it will take more than a decade to get to a minimal oil infrastructure.
Best Hopes,
Alan