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Ace - population and demographics are of course vitally important to this debate.
It is not just the number of children that couples have but the age they are determines population growth. If couples wait till they are over 30 then you have 3 generations per century. Under 20 and you have over 5 generations per century. The UK has the worst record in Europe, I believe for under age teenage pregnancy.
The UK (along with many OECD countries) has a major problem at present with an ageing population. The governments concern is how to pay for pensions and caring for the elderly. And so they are encouraging immigration from Eastern Europe. At a personal level I think this is a great thing - we have loads of young, well educated and motivated workers comming to the UK. This of course boosts our population.
The government has pursued two policies in recent years that arguably have a negative impact upon our per capita energy consumption. One is a policy of caring for the elederly at home. At a human level this is a wonderful policy. But with millions of single old folks sitting at home alone all day with the heating full on (paid for by government) watching TV sure uses a lot of energy. It also keeps these dwellings off the housing market - creating a housing shortage and the need to build millions of new homes.
The other is education policy where Tony Blair decided that 50% of UK youngsters should attend university. This has resulted in a large migration of youngsters from country areas into the cities where they end up living alone in 2 bedroon flats - millions of which have been built recently. Previously they may have stayed with parents longer in the family home.
The role of religion in shaping world population growth also needs to be critically examined. The world population clearly cannot go on growing for ever. Right now I beleive a major famine is just around the corner.
[begin sarcasm]
Doomer porn! Doomer porn! How dare you bring such stuff into the holy of holies that we call TOD!!!!
[end sarcasm]
In truth, Euan, I agree with you on that statement too. The grain situation for the last 8 years has not looked very good at all as we've plunged from just over 100 days of global grain supply to about 50 days of global grain supply. Given that 7 of the 8 last years resulted in drawing down stocks of grain and in that time we've cut our stocks in half, we are literally 8 years away from famine if present trends continue.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Cereal Killer
This chart suggests cereal stocks reaching zero before 8 years. A topic I think we need a detailed look at. Stuart was working on a post but has gotten sidetracked - definitely a subject to pursue though. I was also interested in the comments of Ziz down the thread about fertilizer production being concentrated in the ME. This makes sense but doesn't half open up a major pile of security issues.
Isn't most grain used to feed livestock?
Couldn't we reduce our per-capita grain consumption by about 80% by going vegetarian?
Ya, enjoy those burgers and steaks while you can.
Euan,
thanks for a stark and devastating analysis of our future - or lack of it.
The significant graph is to my mind, the balance of payments. While many cannot or will not see the impact of a Hubbert curve, the balance of payments dropping off a cliff will get attention with any politician.
Regarding population.
IMO: The UK is full up. We could not easily feed ourselves in 1917 or 1943. Feeding 60+ million is impossible.
More immigration both legal and illegal is simply going to be grist to the BNP mill and, as the economy declines, the BNP will be fast off the blocks with 'the answer'. To all who will not face this fact, I say this: The lifeboat is full. It is better to face this now than see a BNP government returned in 2013 or 2018. (My feet are too old to wear jack-boots, though I suspect I may find myself on the wrong side of the razor wire :-(...)
Regarding the costs of switching to alternative transport modes , building Nukes, alternative energy systems etc.
We are truly between a rock and a hard place.
Externally, we will be competing for resources with other countries. As well as oil and gas, this will include food staples
Internally, we will have competing claims on a dwindling wealth. 60% of UK 'wealth' is in housing which is merely a halucination. Competition for the wealth will come, (and simultaneously) from Rail Infrastructure, Nuke building, a burgeoning unemployment sector. This is without even considering the costs of continuing in Iraq and Afganistan, Trident replacement, our two new carriers and of course the trippling costs of the Olympics. Also throw in these costs:
Unfunded public sector pensions, the cost the ID card system, and any not yet recognised contingencies.
It may also be reasonable to assume that the billions lost in our summer of floods may be a more recurrent feature of life in the UK.
In short the charges on the ever diminishing purse will increase. As we speak, the UK is highly taxed and there is not much more margin for such increases.
The fact that we no longer sell manufactured goods but in fact now derive the bulk of our wealth in the City of London from share swapping, hedging etc means that as we go into recession and these spurious methods of earnings become increasingly fallacious both in the UK and in our dealings with the rest of the world suggest a shrinking tax base at a time of increasing demands upon that same tax base.
In short, wealth will be sucked out of the UK so fast, our ears will pop and the money required for nation saving projects will just not be there.
Forget pensions, care in old age, expensive medical care etc. These other huge charges on the state will evapourate.
I think we are too late.
God, this makes me so bloody angry.
How was the pizza by the way :-)