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Good morning!
The difference between IEA and EIA figures for Crude Oil results probably because they are handling huge global statistics. They probably have somewhat different sources for the more difficult countries. These result in differences for some countries/regions mainly in the last few months. There are often revisions that close the gap between these differences.
So I would guess it's an occupational hazard
--
It's quite interesting to see what's going on, for instance with the US actually increasing production. A trend that will likely continue in the 2nd half if the Hurricane season is a mild one. They have planned to bring the Tahiti field onstream in that period (200,000 barrels per day).
Tahiti was scheduled to come on stream in 2008.
Thunderhorse 250,000 barrels a day and
Atlantis 200,000 barrels a day in the GOM are also delayed.
BP was having problems with the Mad Dog subsalt deep production and "highly mobile tar deposits" at nearly 22,000 feet of total depth. The field is shut in.
Smaller offshore fields peaked and declined much faster than some of what the previous generation was finding to replace production with. Of course there is much new technology, more rigs available, and all sorts of laws and restrictions, in other places lawlessness, to add to the dilemma of predicting the future.
Peak oil will come if it has not already passed. Heavy oil production seems to be a separate foot hill or peak forming.
U.S. average daily crude oil production for the first half of 2007 exceeded crude oil production over 2006 (EIA weekly petroleum report).
per your charts, the difference is non opec, and began late 2006, so perhaps could be isolated. Prior to this eia/iea were in pretty good agreement, so it should be possible to locate what countries are causing the recent divergence.