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29 comments on Sixth Annual ASPO Conference – Cork, Ireland

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The Chimp Who Can Drive on July 8, 2007 - 4:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Already have a very active forum:

http://www.latocforum.com

best of luck with yours, the net is pretty crowded with peak oil forums at this point.

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westexas on July 8, 2007 - 7:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Matt,

I have had some recent discussions with some scientists within the federal government, who have formed an informal Peak Oil group. They have had no luck in trying to get higher ups to pay any attention to Peak Oil. They are leaning toward your view of the future. When they contemplated my Export Land Model (ELM), one of them said that you could have heard a pin drop as they thought about the ramifications.

I don't know if you saw my recent comments on the ELM, but if we assume peak production and peak exports from Export Land, with consumption equal to 50% of production, and assume a 5% production decline rate and 2.5% rate of increase in consumption, Export Land--after hitting peak exports--would only export 10% of remaining production.

My guesstimate right now (the HL based models aren't done yet) is that only about 25% or so of remaining production in the top 10 net oil exporting countries will be exported.

Export Land Model:
http://static.flickr.com/97/240076673_494160e1a0_o.png

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totoneila on July 8, 2007 - 10:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello WT,

I expect the same shocked, contemplative, silent lull when you & Khebab present the ELM at the ASPO/USA Houston Conference. Combined with Stuart Staniford's speech, with credit to Euan Mearns/Fractional Flow, presenting on KSA's Ghawar: I think TOD will rock the house.

When I check the ASPO/USA conf. website: I don't see you listed as a speaker. Are you just going to do an off-podium 'tech breakout session' speech & display? Thxs for any reply.

EDIT: Almost forgot to mention that another TopTODer, Nate Hagens, will be internationally banging the oildrum first in ASPO/Ireland across the pond in Cork.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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westexas on July 9, 2007 - 11:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Regarding ASPO-USA, I think that they may be waiting to see the paper (I am not a headline speaker). I think that I am penciled in for 20 minutes or so, some time around the IEA chief economist. We did have some tense discussions regarding the HL method which turned out to be largely a misunderstanding.

In any case, I told the guys up front that, IMO, declining net export capacity will not be news by October, and so far events seem to be headed in that direction. There will however be a fierce debate as to "why" net export capacity is declining.

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totoneila on July 9, 2007 - 1:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello WT,

Thxs for the reply. IMO, you are another TopTODer, so please keep up the good fight.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Aniya on July 8, 2007 - 10:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi WT/Jeffrey,

Thanks and

re: "I have had some recent discussions with some scientists within the federal government, who have formed an informal Peak Oil group."

This seems a little bit promising.

Can we connect w. them?

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westexas on July 9, 2007 - 11:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I offered to make a formal presentation on net exports to their group, but the response was that the higher ups would never approve it.

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Aniya on July 9, 2007 - 5:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi WT/Jeffrey,

Thanks and good for you.

A few questions, though...because, after all, we do need action (yes?). For a rather obvious example, a decent energy policy/strategy backed by a roll call of scientists, especially ones who have not spoken out before. This might be at least worth a try.

1) I thought this group was "informal"?

If so, does this mean they are looking into "peak" on their own? Thus free from constraints of having to account for how their time is spent (in fiscal terms)?

Freedom of assembly and all that.

If they are indeed, informal, then what's the problem? Can't they meet with you? (Or, don't they have enough pocket money to pay for travel or something?)

Or, don't they consider this important? Or, what? In other word, why do they "need" the approval of "higher ups"?

2) How about meeting here?

3) There are (apparently) on-going science-type consulting groups, such as the somewhat infamous Jason.

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/

Supposedly, they are independent in terms of topic choice,work done on topics - and supposedly, lack of pressure re: results. Yes?

Is there any overlap between members of this "informal group" and any of these consulting groups?

4) In other words, when Chimp asks "are they doing any preps" - my Q is - how about "preps" on the somewhat larger scale? Alan's scale, or the ODP scale, for example. Or personally?

5) If the "higher ups" don't approve, then at least one has the experience of having done something (I won't say "all one could do")...just to pose a counter-argument.

The "higher ups" also presumably at some point have some stake in something that links them to the rest of humanity?

Or, is everyone w.a security clearance exempt, (like, they don't eat?) and being more highly educated makes one more exempt? (And excuse me while I either get off the soap box or cry.)

The "higher ups" wouldn't approve? How come?

Anyway, at least I'm curious about "informal" v. "needing approval" (apparently).

Thanks.

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westexas on July 9, 2007 - 7:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I am trying not to disclose (in a public forum), without their consent, which group they work for, given the very sensitive nature of their work.

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Aniya on July 10, 2007 - 3:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi WT,Jeffrey,

Thanks for responding.

I actually didn't mean to fish for who participates in what. Of course, you want to respect people's privacy, as we all do.

It's more I was wondering what might prevent them from inviting you to talk further, as you'd mentioned. Or, rather, what it is about "higher ups" not approving that would be an obstacle. Especially given the gravity of the situation.

I'm glad people are contacting you. Hope it leads to something widely applicable and positive.

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The Chimp Who Can Drive on July 9, 2007 - 12:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

They are leaning toward your view of the future.

So they see energy shortages followed by terminator robots being deployed across the land followed by human-animal chimera super soldiers being deployed followed by a nuclear exchange followed by ass-raping Chinese pirates taking to the high seas?

(And that's all just before breakfast.)

Are any of them prepping?

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snuffy on July 9, 2007 - 2:41am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From my days as a fed{c/105Radcon,DODFEMA} the ones who are are bright enough not to be discussing it.There exists no more political job in the world than fed science...and this administration is very very quick to cut the head off of anyone who rocks the boat.

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Aniya on July 9, 2007 - 5:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi snuffy,

Hi, yes, well...it's always a liability, to having something (a life, the life of others) to lose.

re: "...very quick to cut the head off of anyone"

A counter-argument:

The heads will roll, one way or the other. Does anyone really believe he/she/they can be fully secure in the face of this?

And part of what one may lose is the feeling of belonging that comes with being elite, any kind of elite. (And nothing fosters eliteness quicker than secrecy, does it?) (Saying "I know, but I can't tell?")

A fundamental human need, belonging. A little different for men, perhaps, than for women, in general. Still, basic.

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westexas on July 9, 2007 - 11:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

One of them was really interested in timing. I told him that, IMO, the net export crisis has started. It's just a question of how declining net export capacity is allocated--guns or dollars, or more likely some combination of both.

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Aniya on July 9, 2007 - 5:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

HI again WT,

Did you invite them over here?

Re: "guns or dollars"

Is anyone (of them) up for talking about anything else?

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CrystalRadio on July 9, 2007 - 2:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So they see energy shortages followed by terminator robots being deployed across the land followed by human-animal chimera super soldiers being deployed followed by a nuclear exchange followed by ass-raping Chinese pirates taking to the high seas?

I would doubt that Ass -raping Chinese Pirates are much of a novelty for them during this administration, but I would imagine the idea of human-animal chimera super soldiers would have them drooling.

BTW caught you on the radio, you sounded fine but cagey about where you plan to swing your hammock. Please continue to do so, in fact why not put it about that you are fixin to stay on your own home on the range. I think anyone moving out of their own well trodden areas ventures into darkness too deep for contemplation. That is the message I get from Willie lump lump, an itinerate gloomer and dipsomaniac ...and who better for the experientially founded advice for these days. Eh?

best of luck with yours, the net is pretty crowded with peak oil forums at this point.

Ah yes, there are many sites, but we are not merely a PO site we are a multifaceted 'doom does approach from many directions' site that, as well, does toe dances in sensible shoes. You should see us when we start Morris dancing about the joint. Remember it's http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/ for a complete cross section of your doomer/survivor needs.

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westexas on July 9, 2007 - 7:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/07/10/042.html
Tuesday, July 10, 2007. Issue 3695. Page 5.
The Moscow Times: Alfa Report Sees Trouble Looming in Russian Oil Sector
By Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writer

Alfa Bank warned on Monday that "production stagnation is unavoidable" at the country's oil fields and further downgraded its target prices for shares in most Russian oil companies.

The dramatic worsening in its outlook was the result of the government's reluctance to consider lowering taxes on oil firms and a higher proportion of water in the declining output, the bank said in a research report.

Alfa has led the way in cautioning investors about oil sector profits over the last six months, with other brokerages following suit in reducing expectations. . . .

. . . Alfa Bank first downgraded its projections in the sector in March, saying that oil majors were depleting existing fields while heavy taxes on the industry were preventing the development of new fields.

In Monday's report, the company described the situation as "substantially more dangerous" than it had suggested four months ago.

The increasing proportion of water in total output was a major source of concern, the bank's analysts wrote. This causes a quickening in the rate of natural production decline at most fields.

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