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The only guidance the Second World War can offer is how the people of the UK managed through the Battle of the Atlantic with respect to domestic food production and rationing
And how Switzerland got through a 6 year 100% oil embargo while maintaining a Western industrialized democracy with a decent quality of life. Some lessons from Sweden too,
Best Hopes for non-oil transportation,
Alan
Switzerland was a nice little piggy bank for the Nazis, and never much in need of Oil and with a low population. And a lot of small-holding farms with farmers at home.
Sweden kept a lot of trade going, had a low population and a lot of small-holding farms with farmers at home.
UK was 40 million and fighting for its life. Coal for industry, oil for ships tanks and planes. With a lot of workers in khaki, substituted with land army girls. Markets for finished goods were lost (not that we continued making much as factories converted to war materials)
And of course, the Nazis were not trying to strangle the Swedes or the Swiss.
Not the best comparison I think, but still something to learn from.
Even on a war footing, with victory gardens and massive attempts to feed itself, the UK did not survive without help. Of course, not every ship was loaded with Grain and meat, many were prioritsed for munitions and armaments of all types and fuel.
We are now 60+ million and climbing and have paved stubstanial areas of prime agricultural land especially in the South East and the midlands.
Example 1: Earlier this week the High Court overturned a small group of allotment farmers. They found in favour of the council who wanted to sell the allotments to developers.
Example 2: The flooding in the UK as seen this week is as much due to paving farmland, meadows and wood land as any unusual weather. Actually the weather is not unusual. Its just the 'june monsoon'. Just a bit heavier because of the dry April.
A slow squeeze might allow some mitigation with effort and national leadership and a unity government. A rapid interruption of food and oil flows would be an immediate disaster. We have traded national resilience for just in time efficiencies at every component level of society, from gas storage, to imports of milk, butter and cheese (on an island made of lush grass and rain every other day - we import cheap milk! While UK Dairy farmers go bankrupt on a weekly basis). Most of our clothes and shoes come from Chindia.
So, in summary, Were we to build any kind of resilience in the UK for the times ahead, we would have to turn modern capitalism and economics completely on its head.
As you may well say yourself:
Best hopes for a voluntary return to the resilience of a less efficient, vertically integrated, management - capitalism economy.