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139 comments on Will OPEC increase supply in the 2nd half of 2007? Or has Ghawar peaked?

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SamuM on June 20, 2007 - 3:33am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

In the likely event that IEA/EIA has to backtrack on their projections for possible supply growth, what happens?

Has anybody done detailed analysis, what would be estimated optimistic scenarios for increases in Iraq and African countries on the short-term, IF the security/political situation didn't hamper production?

I do not expect the security situation to improve miraculously.

This is a mere thought-game to think if there is still any significant short-term spare capacity outside KSA?

I understand the importance of KSA and super-giants in particular, but it'd be interesting to see a summary of possible capacity increases from USA's major oil importing region, which I believe is now Africa.

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Rembrandt on June 20, 2007 - 4:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

@Samum

Your optimistic Iraq case if there were no violence, plenty of cooperation and large foreign inflows would be an increase from 2 mb/d now to 3 mb/d in 2010 and 6 mb/d in 2020.

In Africa there is about 600.000 b/d - 800.000 b/d offline in Nigeria, which can be added on a short term basis if violence seases.

Both scenario's are very unlikely.

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