Energy's Role in Europe's Trade Deficits

On February 16th, the Eurostat released its first assessment of external trade balances for 2006 (pdf), making clear that energy is imposing an important burden on the Union’s economy. They key figures:

During 2006, euro area trade recorded a deficit of 8.2 bn1 euro, compared to a surplus of 16.2 bn in 2005. The EU25 recorded a deficit of 172.6 bn in 2006, compared with -111.8 bn in 2005.

The trade balance of a country is calculated as the amount of money earned in all products exported minus the amount of money spent in all products imported. If the result is positive the country shows a healthy economy where a money surplus provides for an increase in social standards. By the contrary, a negative result means a faltering economy that loses money, putting at risk the current life standard; in such case the problem can be mitigated be attracting foreign investment or borrowing money, but it is never a desirable situation. A growing trade deficit is a scenario that if not properly and timely addressed, is unsustainable, eventually translating into the loss of individual purchase power and of the overall life standard.

The Eurostat’s news release focus on November and December of 2006, makes the first estimate for 2006 as a whole and portraits detailed results for the January – November of 2006 period. This is probably the worst external trade balance since the Euro currency came to be, and there’s no mistake why:

The [EU25] energy deficit grew strongly (-259.7 bn euro in January-November 2006 compared with -202.3 bn in January- November 2005), while the surpluses rose in the chemicals sector (+72.4 bn compared with +64.9 bn) and for machinery and vehicles (+103.4 bn compared with +91.2 bn).

The energy trade deficit rose 25% in a single year; at this rate it will top 500 bn € before 2010. And the overall picture is not so bad because in the other sectors (transformation industries) there were positive balances. This increase in industrial activity brought some economic growth reflected on an overall trade increase:

EU25 trade flows with its major partners grew. The most notable increases were for exports to Russia (+27% in January-November 2006 compared with January-November 2005), China (+24%), Norway and India (both +14%), and for imports from Russia (+27%), China and Norway (both +21%), and India (+19%).

Again, large figures, indicating which foreign partners will dominate future external trade. And of course Norway and Russia are here present mainly as energy suppliers. Individual figures for major partners are provided:


External Trade balances with key partners, January – November
(values in bn €)

2006 2005
USA 84.6 80.9
Switzerland 14.0 15.3
South Korea -14.4 -12.2
Japan -28.8 -27.4
Norway -38.0 -29.4
Russia -61.2 -48.0
China -117.1 -97.4

The picture is only improving with the United States, a partner that could go into recession in the coming months. In that case the deficit can only worsen, with the trade flow across the Atlantic cooling down.

The news release also contains figures for the individual states with more weight on the overall balance:


Trade balances in individual states, January – November 2006
(values in bn €)

Germany 151.0
Netherlands 33.0
Ireland 29.9
Sweden 15.2
Italy -20.5
Greece -31.2
France -31.9
Spain -81.4
United Kingdom -116.6

At the bottom of the table is the United Kingdom, which is ironically the EU’s largest oil producer. As reported by Chris, the country is failing to adapt to its depletion rates, digging very rapidly an energy gap that translates into a three digit bn € trade deficit. Changes are needed fast to invert the trend; the role that an independent currency might have or have not in that is yet to be seen.

But the toughest cases are those of Spain and Greece, which although have a lower deficit in volume, represent smaller economies meaning a higher deficit compared to GDP (or on a per capita basis). Spain in particular might be headed for rough times, with one million new homes being built presently and a policy of low taxes on petroleum products - a recipe for trouble. Other states not mentioned might also be in trouble, like Portugal, which has a trade deficit not far from that of Italy, for a much smaller economy and population.

In the last few months Europe has been experiencing some economic growth, which is also observable on a year’s end trade balance recovery. This seems to be an exceptional period where oil prices dropped (lowering import costs) and so the euro currency against the dollar (facilitating exports). With the new year the euro came back in strength against the dollar, something that has the double impact of making exports costlier for importing partners, but at the same time easing the energy imports bill. Even if a strong currency allows for some more years of heavy energy imports, the economy will continue in peril from the exports side.

Europe’s economy consumes energy and crude materials, producing manufactured goods and services, and having an even balance on the food sector. This economic fabric simply cannot function properly in a world with diminishing energy available for trade. Europe not only needs a new Energy Policy, it might need a completely different Economic Paradigm to face the years ahead.


Luís de Sousa
The Oil Drum : Europe

1 bn is used in this post and in the Eurostat news release to express 109.

Hit reddit, hit digg, hit your favorite link farm! :) Send it to slashdot, metafilter, del.icio.us, stumbleupon, etc.

I wonder how long Asia will keep importing diesel and gas powered German cars? Europe should pioneer the plug in pure electric car, since they don't have the oil industry lobbying to go slow on fuel econmoy. Could England produce an electric car?

"Could England produce an electric car?"

Does a fish fart bubbles? Does a bear shiit in the woods? Haell yes, England could produce an electric car....
http://www.pmlflightlink.com/archive/news_mini.html
:-)

RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

Got prices for that?

Luís de Sousa asked, concerning the British hybrid Mini,
"Got prices for that?"

Nope, you would have to contact them, but given the number of high output motors, I don't think it's planned to be in the Kia range....:-)

RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

Maybe - but we couldn't produce the electricity. The UK faces a more serious electricity shortage than oil shortage over the coming decade or two as nuclear is decommissioned, gas becomes scarce and aging coal is decommissioned on environmental grounds.

The answer will probably be to burn more coal, ruin the scottish countryside with windmills and to import surplus energy from France and Germany - like the Italians are doing.

But there's one thing I really don't get. Why aren't the southern Europeans (Spain, Italy and Greece) going all out on solar power? Why not subsidize it big time, like the Germans are doing? Why does this foggy old country think they need to show the rest of the world what to put on the roofs of the barns and houses?

One could, of course, organize this big time:
http://www.trecers.net

Europe's future will definitely not rely on cars and trucks. In my view we have to shift heavily to rail. Internal explosion engines can only on help on collective passenger transport (long range coach).

Rail sounds great, BUT it needs an enormous amount of infrastructure. It's great for the larger population centers (like here in Munich) and is continuing to be expanded. There's only one enormous problem with rail. It's not very flexible.

A car can travel from house to house (point to point - ppt in IT terms). A car can use almost any width of road. A car can drive on the sideburn or even in the grass on the side of the road, if an accident has blocked the intersection in front of you. Or turn around and find a different route. A car can travel on poor and non-paved roads. Only a horse beats the automobile (whether sedan, small truck, van, SUV or whatever) in flexibility! And a car can carry one to many passengers with or without luggage.

A train is not point to point and can only be used in combination with other means. Trains are great! But limitted.

When thinking about alternatives to a car, we have to replace the solutions that the car has offered us over the last century. Remember, the car more or less replaced the train in many (especially the less densly populated) countries.

Whether with internal combustion or electric or whatever really doesn't matter. Think PPT to come up with solutions! By the way, I think cars and trucks will definitely rely at least in part on cars and trucks - even if they don't look like the ones populating the roads today.

Cheers, Dom

Well Dom, maybe a meager energy world means that some of that flexibility will be lost.

Well, my bike is ready.-)

Or maybe it means that "precautionary" societies obsessed to the point of morbid fear by their own shadows, societies that among other things foolishly seek to "decommission" their only short term options, including nuclear power, societies that choose to ignore questions of supply, will simply become miserable backwaters self-consigned to the dustbin of history. Or maybe, more optimistically, when the effects of that sort of nonsensical rubbish really start to bite hard, the people of these fear-ridden societies will finally face up to the hard reality that life is a balancing act, so that seeking the absolute zero of risk and change - including but not limited to climate change and risk attached thereto - might not be the sole and exclusive factor in that balance.

(N.B. that link is impermanent.)

That is the hidden charm of rail. The rationing is implicit. Instead of 2000 cars, providing unlimited mobility 24 hours a day you get 20 departures in 2 directions at your local railstation.

Yeah - railways within cities are the future. Look to Mumbai/india - there are 3 main stretches faning out from downtown - and every station are supported by busses/rickshaws/taxies for the local vicinity of the stations. Private driving is rare as the local trains serves 6-7 millions a day ! Hurrah

Most definitly the UK can produce an electric car.

The Tesla Roadster is build by Lotus, and they participated in its design
Smith builds the Newton electric delivery truck.
The PML converted Mini as mentioned by another poster.

I'd say the British car industry is way ahead of the Germans and the French when it comes to electric vehicles.

Most definitly the UK can produce an electric car.

The Tesla Roadster is build by Lotus, and they participated in its design
Smith builds the Newton electric delivery truck.
The PML converted Mini as mentioned by another poster.

I'd say the British car industry is way ahead of the Germans and the French when it comes to electric vehicles.

well said realist -
What amazes me the most is actually the issue on cars!
Say the average car uses 1l/10km (for ease) , and we know for sure they can make cars running on 1/10 th of that, rendering a factor 10 more on benefits as economics, ecologic and prolonged usage of fossils for cars… These cars may be small two-seaters with an 100-250cc engine – bound for cities yielding easy 60km/h.
BUT the thing is you never ever hear of such in MSM – why is that ? Are the idea of grand scale modern driving bound for a ‘sudden death’?

Hello Luis,

Thxs for this keypost to get us started.

Your Quote: "At the bottom of the table is the United Kingdom, which is ironically the EU’s largest oil producer. As reported by Chris, the country is failing to adapt to its depletion rates, digging very rapidly an energy gap that translates into a three digit bn € trade deficit. Changes are needed fast to invert the trend; the role that an independent currency might have or have not in that is yet to be seen."

Perhaps the UK can change fast by emulating this progam for Tanzania [Home of Olduvai Gorge]:

http://www.ippmedia.com/ipp/guardian/2007/02/28/85335.html
--------------------------------------------------
Former US envoy to build 5,000 homes in Tanzania

Enterprises Homes LLC president Kyle Mcknney said the project`s goal is to build 5,000 quality homes by 2012 and bring in American style mortgage finance to help Tanzanians live in their own homes immediately.

Each residential cluster neighbourhood would consist of single-family homes, `all complete with photovoltaic electrical equipment to enable homebuyers to have an alternative source of power in the event of power blackouts`.

Meanwhile, the design of these homes will be unique and distinguished.`
--------------------------------------------
Unfortunately, no specific design details in the article, but builders everywhere should be investigating the postPeak marketing advantages of Eco-Tech housing markets.

I admit I am confused how this is doable in Tanzania, but not elsewhere as Tanzania is a generally poor country. Maybe zoning and building codes need radical rewriting for corp-homebuilders to quickly shift to super-efficient postPeak housing design.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

A very interesting and rather worrying post. Yet UK and most of Europe in general, still seems to act as if energy supplies for the future are both secure and sufficient. Many signals for the public and initiatives by policy makers, still seem to point the wrong way. Just one example from:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6399157.stm

"The European Research Council (ERC) has been given a budget of 7.5bn euros (£5bn) to 2013, and will focus solely on fundamental, or "blue skies", study. It is hoped the initiative can find the breakthrough thinking - and eventually new products and services - to keep the EU's economy globally competitive."

Surely what is needed is more research and investment in energy efficient technologies and systems, as a matter of urgency.

Looking at trade balance per capita puts a different complexion on the table:

Trade balances in individual states, January – November 2006
(values in)

Country Trade bal. (bn €) Popn.* T.B. per cap. (€)
Germany 151.0 82.4 1833
Netherlands 33.0 16.5 2000
Ireland 29.9 4.2 7119
Sweden 15.2 9.1 1670
Italy -20.5 58.1 -353
Greece -31.2 11.2 -2786
France -31.9 64.1 -498
Spain -81.4 44.7 -1821
United Kingdom -116.6 60.6 -1924

*population in millions, 2006 estimates (data from Wikipedia)

So Ireland is doing amazingly well, with UK, Greece and Spain in big trouble. But Greece and Spain are warm and sunny and one gets the feeling they would more easily transition back to a lower-consumption lifestyle than many others. On the other hand, as Chris has recently shown, UK will by 2008 at latest transition to a net oil importer with its own production declining at around 10% per year. And this with many millions heavily mortgaged in over-valued houses, with large credit-card debts, etc. Now there are some nice little smallholdings in Ireland ...

(P.S. - sorry about table - must learn how to do these neatly in this system)

I've formatted your table. Greece doesn’t look too clever, especially considering tourism powered by cheap European flights is such a major export.

By that measure, Spain is much worse. Tourism is the biggest industry (~50M visitors a year), mainly Britons and Germans in, yes, cheap flights.

There is a lot of investment going on on renewable energy (Spaniards think that windmills are cool, ¿why are the British so squeaky about them?). There is even a law mandating thermal solar on every new building, and electric companies buy any excess photo voltaic electricity generated by homes at five times the normal rate.

Greece isn't as poor as some of the official numbers say, as it is just about the only economy in the EU that is not yet fully controlled by the surveillance state one sees elsewhere. hence, lots of off-books economic activity still takes place there. In addition, greece has very recently discovered the addictive narcotic power of modern consumerism, and they
have gone off the deep end in a way more extreme and more
damaging than i've seen in most any other country. Twenty years ago you saw nothing which wasn't fully paid for, whereas now greeks are almost as in debt with ridiculous consumer
goods as americans are. it's been several years that the
country as a whole has been financing its excessive and
absurd hyperconsumer culture on credit. energy consumption
in greece, though, is only a tiny share of the import bill.
probably more is spent on importing fashionable shoes
or mobile phones.. and another feature.. armaments. greece is a small country with very populous agressive neighbors
with a history of territorial expansionism. The geopolitical
breakdown of the eastern mediterranean being what it is,
even though greece is an EU and a NATO country, it is often
the case that the USA is more accomodating to turkey and
greece is on its own for matters of defense. So, a great
deal of greece's import bill is also expensive western weaponry, and the greeks have to pay for it in cash, to
keep up with aforementioned aggressive neighboring states
who have huge loads of us military assistance.

Ireland is being used by Microsoft, Dell etc.. to export to "the continent" and UK. They speak English, are well educated, young dynamic.. Well, you know.

It is basically a not-very-sophisticated tax-dodge.

Microsoft can "move" its profits wherever it wishes and Ireland has extremely low corporate tax rates. This means also that a lot of Ireland's export and import figures are bunkum.

Software is imported to Ireland at a low price and exported at a much higher price. You can guess for yourselves how much "value" has been added by Ireland in the interim. :=)

Obviously, all of that can go into reverse pretty quickly and the "celtic tiger" can turn into a rather wet pussy cat.

Thanks for the additional info, it gives a further insight of what I meant.

Comparing those numbers with GDP is also an interesting exercise. Portugal has a trade balance per capita close to that of the UK (right now I don’t exact numbers) but GDP per capita is several times lower.

Thanks Chris, for sorting out table.

Of course Portugal, Greece and to a lesser extent Spain, are recipients of much income from foreign tourism. Much of this is low-cost tourism which could well suffer badly in an economic downturn, combined with peak oil starting to bite. A friend of mine who went to university in UK and has lived and worked (often as a sustainability consultant to the EU) in Portugal for nearly 20 years, recently said to me that "$100 oil would kill Portugal" even while expecting effects of such a price to be minor in Britain.

In Portugal at least, public transport is very poor, most people either stay put or drive. They have a rapidly expanding motorway network, especially in the southern half of the country. Rural areas have very scattered populations which make driving necessary to get anywhere. This applies to Ireland also, but they have the advantage of wealth and a (currently) successful economy. Another colleague in Portugal said of global warming predictions, that they would "roast", with southern areas threatened with desertification.

With oil prices sustainable above 80$ diesel would go over 1.2€/litre and that would be the end of the story. The internal economy relies heavily on diesel freight transport and I don’t think it could handle it.

Passenger transport has been evolving in latest years with some new rail infrastructure, especially light rail for commuters. For long distances the tax policy has been benefiting air travel and motoring over rail, which allied to a strange love for the automobile has kept further development from unfolding.

I’m not that worried about tourism, low-cost can go away but Eddie’s Bar wont close it’s doors. Like in the 1980s and 1990s the higher income folks from England will come back.

BTW don’t worry about “roasting”, this is pretty much a frying pan during the summer anyway. It’s the winter that has been strange.

Someone needs to explain to me why the US trade deficit is a sign of that country's supposedly amazing economic dynamism, while Europe's trade deficit is a sign of uncompetitiveness.

And note this:

Europe has managed to increase its sales to the countries that sell it oil, so it suggests that it is able to afford its increased oil bill and to provide something of value in return.

Let me just say one thing without making a great analysis:
Petrodollars have to go somewhere, now don't they?!

"Petrodollars have to go somewhere, now don't they?!"

PeakPlus,
Exactly right. This is Europe's strongest suit by the way. and those who know me or have read my prior posts know that I am not one to fawn over the EU's contributions to the world, but the Euro nations are simply the best in the world at high value added products, no way around it. Everythng from trucks to autos to high class furniture and artwork, electronics and upmarket food and fashion, they are the best. And make no mistake, the petro money (we should say, because as the world changes, it may be dollars, it may be yen, it may be Euros, it may be rubles, etc) does go for a great deal of high value added product. When your on the roll the OPEC countries have been on, you can afford the best. For the Americans, this shows in sales of our construction equipment and large Diesel and turbine engines. Caterpiller, John Deere, Cummins, can compete head on with anybody, and it shows in their sales and stock price. I recently did a comparison on TOD studying the stock price return to shareolders of fossil fuel consuming companies such as John Deere, Cummins, Caterpiller, etc, with oil producing companies such Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, etc.

Care to guess who which has returned more money to shareholders after the giant runup in crude oil and natural gas prices?

The fossil fuel consuming equipment makers won hands down. Despite the myth, there has NOT been a great return to the investors who bet on oil and natural gas. If they will actually look at the whole market, the S&P 500 and many other sectors have matched or beat most oil and gas companies. Sorry to have to tell folks that there simply has been no great run up in comparison to the rest of the economy. Oil at $65 to $70 a barrel is simply assuming it's correct price in relation to the real world economy.

Another point we should mention is that OPEC nations are setting themselves up to compete in more value added areas with the money they get from oil and gas, by moving into the petrochemical areas. This is a brilliant move on their part, an opportunity for European, Japanese and U.S.equipment manufacturers and a great opportunity for Western contractors. The Petro currency is right now driving the world economy even more so than the Chinese or Indian growth bubbles. The Chinese bubble is showing signs of getting overinflated, as we have seen recently. If it pops, the OPEC growth in all areas may be the only thing that keeps the world economy away from a severe contraction. Unless....you assume a rapid leveling and then decline of OPEC oil production soon (ala the North Sea)
Now....no one around here would assume such a thing.....would they? ;-)

The one last interesting thing: if the opposite occured, and the price of oil dropped to say $25 to $30 per barrel, it would create a contraction in the OPEC countries, and leave OPEC buyers of Western high value added goods and chemical and other technology starved for cash and canceling projects.
Get this, a sudden large drop in oil and nat gas prices could actually slow the world economy! Folks the American SUV gas hogs and suburbanites hate to admit it, but it's true....$60 plus dollars a barrel is actually the sweet spot, and anything up to $100 will do little or no harm to the world economy, as long as supply is available (no actual shortages), and may actually do the world some good (conservation, reduced greenhouse gases, greater financng of alternatives, etc....

Roger Conner Jr
Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom

"Get this, a sudden large drop in oil and nat gas prices could actually slow the world economy!"
Yup, Roger, you got it.
No one believes it, but Andrew McKillop has been right the whole time. More oil profits mean world economic growth.

Until, of course, supply stumbles and/or a price-shock were to occure. But CERA has promised us, that it won't!!
Cheers, Dom

I noticed too that heavy industrials have up till now fared much better. For example, the Fidelity industrials sector fund has a five-star Morningstar rating, while the oil sector fund gets four stars and the gas fund three. So the industrials look better in the research. But as Peak Oil moves in, don't you think that will change? Since recession is looming and oil & gas are used not only for construction (growth) but also transportation and fundamental consumption I would think this trend would be likely to reverse. Any thoughts?

This is the one question that has been bugging me for years now. Since we're still on the upside (my arbitrary definition: Upside is until supplies fall 2-3 years consecutively at around 3-4% - or production has fallen 10% and doesn't promise to rise again soon) it's really hard to tell if the heavies and the world economy at large will continue to grow. I think it will for a good while,

BECAUSE

The measure of the economy is a measure of ACTIVITY.
Will there be more or less activity when oil supplies begin falling?
I'd say "more". Just like there is more activity by oil producers looking for more oil (more rigs, etc..) ERGO more will be bought to compensate for the lack of oil out there.

BUT - I really don't know how long this will work, til the shortage really does start reaking havoc...

Boone Pickens repeats oil has peaked here:

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/7/90027473.html

Hello Practical,

Thxs for this link! The Deffeyes Group is getting larger everyday: Deffeyes, Westexas, Darwinian, Ace, Simmons, and now Pickens. Who am I forgetting?

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

CERA when they talk to their paying customers, CFR, CIA, the list goes on,

"The trade balance of a country is calculated as the amount of money earned in all products exported minus the amount of money spent in all products imported. If the result is positive the country shows a healthy economy where a money surplus provides for an increase in social standards. By the contrary, a negative result means a faltering economy that loses money, putting at risk the current life standard; in such case the problem can be mitigated be attracting foreign investment or borrowing money, but it is never a desirable situation. A growing trade deficit is a scenario that if not properly and timely addressed, is unsustainable, eventually translating into the loss of individual purchase power and of the overall life standard."

This is not necessarily true. It really depends on what is done with the imports/new debt.
If you run a trade deficit because you import consumption goods then it's not sustainable. However in many countries, the CEE among them, the trade deficit is to a significant extent caused by investment in new production capabilities.

Think of it this way: Borrowing to buy a plasma TV is bad, borrowing to finance a college education is often quite sensible.

It's the same wit trade deficits. Though really one shouldn't look at net trade, but the current account that includes interest earned on a country's foreign assets. Japan for example barely has a trade surplus these days, however Japan has way more external assets than debt and its external debt also pays a lower interest rate than its assets, thus it could run a trade deficit and pay for it with interest income.

However in many countries, the CEE among them, the trade deficit is to a significant extent caused by investment in new production capabilities.

From the news report it is clear the deficit is caused by the energy imbalance.

Luis,

It is not so clear if a deficit is a bad thing. There are many different opinions about this.