100 comments on A primer on reserve growth - Part 3 of 3
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"There are 13 recognized Outlooks that tell us we are on our way to 90-mbd shortly after the inaugeration of the next usa President. There are NONE that defy that trend. There are no recognized URR Estimates that are showing a decline in annual URR."
Freddy, what is the current average of these outlooks regarding a peak date and maximum rate per day achieved?
95-mbd in 2020
Sounds a little high and far out, but not completely unreasonable. I wonder what the % of the total liquid that C+C will be?
I would assume it would be considerable smaller than it is today. Just read an article and it looks like the CTL push in the US may be starting.
You are basing this forecast of production on a few years trendlines that have seen the price of oil going up. What happens when the price of oil stagnates or declines over a year or two? Prices for new production and enhanced recovery are increasing at 25 to 50% per year in such places as Alberta tar sands. Probably same is true for KSA and deepwater Gulf of Mex. Then also consider that places like Iran and Mexico don't have the political will to increase production. And other places like Iraq and Nigeria are on the edge of civil war with factions fighting over who gets the benefits of oil.
Bottom line: IMO your forecast of 95 mbd is unlikely given economic considerations and political turmoil. Remember URR does not mean increased production, only that oil can be produced at a certain cost.