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130 comments on Aviation and Oil Depletion

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John McFadden on December 19, 2006 - 7:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I checked a Canadian government study on demand elasticity in air travel.

For domestic flights, which would include flights to and in the US, both business and leasure travel have median elasticity just slightly greater than 1, with leasure just slightly more elastic.

However, for international business travel elasticity is .265.  

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Jason Bradford on December 19, 2006 - 2:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The Hirsch Report claims that about 50% of airline travel is "discretionary." (http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf):  

"In the short run, much of the burden of adjustment will likely be borne by decreases in consumption from discretionary decisions, since 67 percent of personal automobile travel and nearly 50 percent of airplane travel are discretionary."

Of course what that really means is interesting.  What proportion of eating and drinking is discretionary? If flying is cut down by 90% does that mean we perish?

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