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75 comments on The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators

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andrew on December 12, 2006 - 9:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
given the average decline rate of the above figure (over the last 6 years) of 13%, does anyone know how a prediction of 9% decline can be made? - thats a 30% decrease in decline rate, and from smaller fields which, as has been pointed out on several occasions, have a faster decline rate.

also (i don't think i have the numbers to plot the above graph myself) could someone plot what the general decline rate vs time has been, and extrapolate that to the future?

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Euan Mearns on December 13, 2006 - 5:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Andrew - sorry for getting you confused here.  The chart above does not show the 48 new fields that have been brought on since 2000.  If you include the new fields, the underlying decline rate is reduced from 13% to and actual rate of 7.6% as shown below.


What Khebab is saying is that his modelling suggests the actual decline may accelerate to 11% from 7.6%.

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