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75 comments on The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators

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Khebab on December 8, 2006 - 6:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I made a mistake in my post above, the ultimate decline rate is in fact K/2 (and not K) which gives 11% (and not 22%).
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Nate Hagens on December 12, 2006 - 6:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The next generation of Brits thanks you and forgives you.
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DelusionaL on December 13, 2006 - 10:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This makes me think that we have a "mirror" to WT's "export land" model.  Perhaps he has mentioned it already.

Jeffery Brown (aka WT) we need an import land model as well.  If the UK is going to increase the ammount of imported oil it needs to even maitain the status quo....

Is anyone else frighten by this stuff?  This looks like it could get very ugly very quickly to me.  

I look at all the homes, apartments and town houses around Portland, OR all heated by nat. gas or electric(48% coal fired)-
No trees for fuel, no land to grow food, and ton's of people hooked on electronic toys.
The perfect storm...

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LoveOregon on December 15, 2006 - 9:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
DelusionaL:  Think regionally, man.  I'm not saying things are in good shape at all here in Portland, but there is vibrant regional agriculture, reasonable mass transit, urban growth boundaries having contained sprawl better than most places in the US, a fairly aware citizenry (well, less bad than many other places, shall we say), fairly high social capital (recall TOD discussions of this about four months ago).  There's also fairly high regional identity in Cascadia, something Bob Shaw has pointed to in the past.  This is a resource, and it's manifested in many forms, some obviously green but others flying under different colors ("don't Californicate Oregon", etc.).  
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