The Oil Drum: Europe

45 comments on Fuel duty and the effect of oil prices on the UK economy

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Euan Mearns on December 7, 2006 - 2:22pm

Hi And1 - one of the big energy intensive demographic trends we have in my opinion is a steady drift away from family units towards single people living alone in 2 bedroom flats (probably blogging all day). Marriage and kids seem to be on the way out, as is looking after ageing parents - who just get older and older. In the street where I live there are about 30 houses - built in 1929. About 20 of the residents are 80+ - mainly widowed women - sitting there alone all day burning gas to keep warm. Most of the remainder are families. But everywhere around they are building 2 bedroom flats for single occupancy - my guess the building industry will shortly have a real hard time.

The other thing that has happended in the UK is the government obsession with tertiary education for all. This has led to a big migration of young folks from country areas to the University cities - like Aberdeen - and that means even more young people chasing 2 bedroom flats. And the country schools are half empty.

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And1 on December 7, 2006 - 8:23pm

Quite so EM, demographics is a killer in terms of energy

The EU statistics show a steady growth in m2/person and it is the same trend all over europe. In Denmark there is an average 55 m2 / person and the rest of Europe is closing in on that number. Luckily the improvment of building standards has kept the heat loss in check. In Denmark the energy use for heating per person has been the same for 25 years.

As once a farmers boy I pity the depopulation of the countryside. On the other hand I cannot blame people for seeking well paid jobs in the city- and for the remaining farmers to merge farms to make a living?

As many have mentioned in TOD there will, at some stage be a reversal of the trend - but possibly not before biomass/ renewables are dominating energy supply and will need a localized workforce.
In terms of energy use, cities are usually more efficient than living in the countryside. The " compact city" with short distances, piping, sewers, wiring and the relatively lower heat loss from apartment buildings compared to single houses ( volume/area) will possibly mean that people will be better off in cities. As long as there is work there.
But what is important to me is to reduce the base energy consumption in society. Ideally by incremental steps year by year. As I have mentioned before, Denmark 2005 used 840 PJ/year. In a post fossil scenario Denmark can sustainably produce some 250 PJ energy with biomass and full use of renewables ( solar hot water PV, Windmills etc.
So sustainable " forever" energy consumption should be 250/840 ~1/3 of 2006 for Denmark. The big energy consumers are building energy use plus transport- together some 70% of all energy use, and we should concentrate on reducing them.

For buildings a reduction of energy use to 1/3 for buildings over a 50-75 year time frame is possible and demonstrated already- both for new- and old buildings. For transport it should be possible also in shorter time frame.
So I am quite optimistic. There is no easy fix- but a lot of changes.

In order to prepare society for this future it is important to improve energy understanding on all levels in society and for this education and "visibility" are important ingredients.

Regards And1

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Euan Mearns on December 8, 2006 - 9:26am

And1:

In order to prepare society for this future it is important to improve energy understanding on all levels in society and for this education and "visibility" are important ingredients.

I couldn't agree more - but getting our politicians to acknwoledge there is a problem is no easy thing. In the UK, where in a few short years we have gone from being oil and gas exporter to an importer of both you would think the government might take note - no chance I'm afraid, they think energy grows on trees - and now we've used up all our own we'll just go use some one elses instead.

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