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51 comments on The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models

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Euan Mearns on November 26, 2006 - 8:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Khebab - I deleted part of the legend on Figure 9 deliberately because I want to defer discussion of other production models to my next post.  I was going to do all this in one, but at 3000+ words - I thought this post was laready long enough.

RE - logistic curve - can I send you my spread sheet for some curve plotting tuition?

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Khebab on November 27, 2006 - 10:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I just sent you the spreadsheet, below is the resulting chart:

The parameters of the loglets are the following:


          Loglet 1    Loglet 2
URR          7.921    16.85
Dt          10.256    19.338
Peak Date     1984.4    1998.7

Details about the Loglet analysis here.

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Khebab on November 27, 2006 - 1:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Forgot some details:
  • production number are believed to be for crude oil only (DTI).
  • the logistic growth parameters (K) for the two loglets are 42.85% and 22.72% respectively (much steeper decline than the one derived from the HL (~14%)).
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Euan Mearns on November 28, 2006 - 9:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Khebab - thanks for this.  I guess there are two messages here.  The first is that the logistic decline looks more rapid than the exponential and that my Mearns2 model may prove over-optimistic.  The second that we need to continue to be wary of data.  I think the data you have used will be for crude+condensate+NGL but may exclude the miscellaneous liquids that arrive at pipline terminals.
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Khebab on November 28, 2006 - 10:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
1. The decline rate of a logistic curve is proportional to the oil reserve fraction minus the cumulative production fraction(see here for details):

(dP/dt)/P=K(1-2Q/URR)=K(Reserve Fraction  - Cum. Prod. Fraction)

Consequently, the decline will be slow near the mid-point and will accelerate toward K when Q tends toward the URR.
2. If you have another dataset, I can give new estimates.

P.S.: have you received my last email from yesterday?

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