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2 comments on ASPO-USA: Geopolitical Implications of Peak Oil Theory

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Jussi on November 5, 2006 - 2:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Hi Chris!

I tend to think an orderly decline is all but impossible, for various reasons.

First, while we all know the Middle East is far from stable, I think its instability may yet be underestimated. After the Western invasion of Iraq, the balance of power in the region has changed very quickly and, to a certain extent, unexpectedly (depends on whom you ask, but there were certainly people who didn't expect Iran to emerge as THE major power in the Gulf). At the same time, US power appears to diminish by the day, as acknowledged even by Richard Haass, president of the CFR.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20061101faessay85601-p30/richard-n-haass/the-new-middle-east.html

Second, it appears the global financial system may be much more vulnerable than most of us think. The housing bubble in the US and elsewhere is conceivably about to burst, the USD could collapse any day, and the most important stock markets appear very vulnerable as well. Europe 2020 think tank warned just a couple of weeks back that:

"The phase of impact [about to start in November] which succeeds the phase of acceleration constitutes a period when a series of brutal crises starts affecting by contamination the total system. This explosive phase of the crisis, which will last six months to one year, will affect directly and very strongly financial players and markets, the owners of investment schemes with fixed incomes in dollars, pension's funds and the strategic relations between the United States on the one side, and Europe and Asia on the other."

http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/161006.html

When you combine a progressive destabilization of the ME and a global financial crisis, it is quite hard to see how oil production could just nicely follow what HL predicts, be it factually correct so far or not.

It is naturally possible that the ME will hold together (at least to a sufficient extent) and the pretty inevitable financial crisis will be relatively mild. Somehow it just seems the really scary scenarios may be about to converge in a pretty destructive way. Let's hope this will not lead to a global war anyway.

Jussi

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Fisheye on November 9, 2006 - 2:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Peak toil.
    Have been lurking around TOD sites for a long time now but, as a person who finds sums problematical, have been somewhat intimidated by yr jolly graphs and stats.   Nevertheless, was convinced of the peak oil dilemma frm day one, but now feel that yr case is amply proven, and that the continued turning of the runes is getting dangerously close to counting angels on pinheads.   Perhaps it is time for u to consider a name change, say to; The Post Peak Oil Drum; when serious social solutions might be considered, especially by the Anglo Coalition which has played a large part in the evolution of the problem.   Since Tiny Bliar is going, and a new dawn is breaking in the U.S. (guffaw, guffaw), this might be a good time to offer our respective govmints some, badly needed, assistance.  
    Plainly we can't go as we now do, so perhaps u shud come up with a, 10/50/100/whatever, point plan for sustainability.   When u have come to a consensus of desirable strategies, then put them in order of precedence using that good ol' scientific, reductive, method we have come to know and love, and pass them over to TPTB.   Therefore the plan is simply to make a list of such strategies, only sorting them out later when u've got as many as u want.   I'll make a start below:

Bureaucrats/bureaucracies.
Problem: They cost too much.   There are too many bureaucrats, they don't do any work, and they multiply like bacteria.  
Solution: Half must be fired now; they will go on to waste reclamation sites/permaculture farms* (see below).   The rest will work harder, for longer hours, on half pay, while the services they provide will get slower.   If necessary, they will have to be worked to death.   Those that die will not be replaced.   They will live in their offices and, therefore, not need housing.   Their families, if any, will, after a short period of abuse by military units (in lieu of pay), be relocated to permaculture farms/waste reclamation sites on the same terms as "retired" bureaucrats.   When all b/crats are dead services will be withdrawn.  

Unemployment Benefits.  
Problem: They cost too much.
Solution: All citizens, especially those with a pulse, will be fully employed in permaculture farms/waste reclamation sites.  

Pensions.
Problem: They cost too much.  
Solution: There will be no retirement age, ergo - no pensions.   Private pensioners will have their money confiscated, and they will be put to work on permaculture farms/waste reclamation sites.      

Elderly.
Problem: They cost too much.
Solution: There will be no retirement age, ergo - no elderly.  

Health:
Problem: It costs too much.  
Solution: All health sector workers will be put to work on permaculture farms/waste reclamation sites.      

Population.
Problem: There are too many people.  
Solution: All single young people (under 50, no, better make that 60) will be accommodated in dormitories of converted hospitals near permaculture farms/waste reclamation sites, and strictly segregated.   Not to mention that sex will be illegal.  

Sex. I said not to mention sex.   What are u, a politician?  

Landfill sites.  
Problem: They are full of stuff.  
Solution: They will be turned over by hand and all reclaimable materials will be reclaimed, all organic materials will be composted and/or fed to bureaucrats workers.  

Dead People.
Problem: They are wasted.  
Solution: They will be boiled down for soap, and what remains will be composted.   Any pecuniary reward, accrued to them in life, will be grabbed by govmint.  

*Waste reclamation = hand sorting of landfill sites.  
*Permaculture farms = All open spaces; once we have dealt with the "Git orf moi land" lobby.   The means by which the population is provided with the necessary 250 - 500 food calories per day.  

    Sure u will agree with these useful ideas, and trust that yr contributors will add others.   Let's make a start!  

F/eye.  

P.S.   Question: Do u think, as the first turds arc towards the fan, that an 'Admirable Crighton' effect will mean that all the useless ones (they know who they are) will be reduced to energy slavery, and issued with rickshaws?  

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