101 comments on ASPO-USA: Support for Global Energy Flow modelling and a Net Energy database
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On the former, one thing that is often overlooked in the discussion of net energy, and in my opinion is largely disregarded by net energy detractors is that modern society is built on highly concentrated energy and most alternative forms are more diffuse in nature.
In other words, energy quality, an important component of net energy analysis, will someday switch over from electricity to liquid fuel being more highly valued and scarce (unless we quickly switch to electrified transport). Low EROI biofuels and non-upgraded wind and solar dont have the oomph to operate our current infrastructure, unless they are concentrated and upgraded, which at each stage undergoes an energy loss. So, although the graphic is dated, our task is to move the renewable blue boxes upward, using technology and the depleting blue boxes, while gradually moving the red boxes downward
It seems the problem is that modern society survives on the spread between efficiency of production and efficiency of use - an energy profit margin so to speak.
However, to carry the analogy one step further, I am not sure that the highly concentrated energy use that modern society is built on is a "fixed cost" or fixed variable.
Modern society's wasteful approach to energy may not be an integral element to modern society, but rather a byproduct of historical cheap energy. Just like we never had to consider net energy with 50+ EROEI resources available, we never had to consider the efficiency of our energy use at a system level.
I have noted before that I believe that "conservation" is a crucial element of the eventual solution, but that there is no viable mechanism for making it happen aside from price. The diminishing net energy of future resources seems certain to have an impact on the cost of energy. This will lead to a reduction in use. If the use is wasteful, then the impact does not have to be entirely negative.
It seems reasonable to consider certain energy consumptive lifestyles as dependant on peak oil and hence doomed. I am sure that the people in wealthy and soon to be wealthy countries could and will eliminate massive amounts of energy from food, transportation, and other activities.
The EROEI line on Cry Wolf's chart makes it clear that marginal suppliers of net energy, such as corn ethanol are not consistent with a lifestyle that we could be expected to adjust to. However, at an energy balance of around +5, it seems the net energy is about 80%. I don't see this as being fatal, although it is unlikely that a majority of energy could be produced at levels much below 10.
So the two relevant questions seem to be:
- Can mankind develop a sustainable energy production system with an EROEI of above 8-10?
- Can mankind live on this level of energy.
The jury is still out on whether we can do this and how severe the impacts of the transition will be. It doesn't provide much assurance to either a doomer or cornucopian viewpoint. It does seem clear that the issues you and Cry Wolf are drawing our attention to are among the most important facing us.Nate, I think this is the diagram that Cutler said he didn't fully understand at ASPO. And I'm not sure what it means either - if anything. I suspect the proximity of spatial area of current fuel sources with our urban / industrial infrastructure may just be a coincidence. Like wise, is it really a problem that renewable energy sources are spatially "less dense" at point of harvesting?
Having said that, it is worth noting the position of Hydro - is that the size of the lake or the catchment area that is plotted. One thing for sure, we couldn't power ourselves just on Hydro in the UK - just not enough height and gradient.
WRT to wind (shoot me now) I guess the question is how many turbines do you need - and what area would be required to host these - is there enough space? Certainly should be if the off shore is used. But I know that there is problem in west Denmark with the intrusion of turbines.
In terms of upgrading wind power (shoot me again) I see that as strategies for delivering a stable grid - balancing and storage - and we need expert electrical engineering input to answer that.
We should remember the very low cost of pumped storage: only .6 cents per kwhr. Why wasn't this used before? Because natural gas was so cheap, and worked so well for handling intermittent/peak loads. Nat gas has only been recognized as expensive and limited for a very, very short time.
Anyway, here is some real data. From the IEA:
http://www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2005/variability.pdf
From an actual electrical engineering journal (requires registration):
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/may06/3544/3
a serious study in Ireland:
http://www.sei.ie/index.asp?locID=330&docID=-1
and from a technical working group of actual power engineers:
http://www.uwig.org/IntegrationStateoftheArt.htm