101 comments on ASPO-USA: Support for Global Energy Flow modelling and a Net Energy database
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My biggest concern is timing. If I understood the preliminarly discussion at the ASPO meeting correctly, the idea is to determine what kind of detailed (country by country) model is needed, find two or three individuals with modelling expertise to work on this, and have a finished product in two or three years. (Correct me if I am wrong on this - I went to a different breakout session.)
Based on this assumed timing, it seems like the output would not be available until about 2009. If peak oil does not occur until 2010 to 2015, this timing might be OK, but does not give much time for mitigation.
There is a distinct possibility, however, that 2005 will prove to be peak oil year. EIA data that came out October 31, 2006, shows the following average production amounts:
Average production - All Liquids - Data set t14
2005 year - 84,411
2006 YTD through August - 84,303
Average production - Crude oil plus lease condensate - 11c
2005 year - 73,554
2006 YTD through August - 73,421
If these patterns continue to hold, 2005 could prove to be the year of highest production. By 2009, we could possibly be four years post-peak.
Because of the close timing of the peak and the need for mitigation, it would seem like we should be making a real effort to publicize any findings that are helpful early on. For example, if, in the course of building the model we discover helpful information about biofuels, we would want to publicize this information as soon as possible. It might even be worthwhile building a simpler model parallel to the full model, in the hopes of developing useful information more quickly.
What Cry Wolf says is true. I suspect that some financial and / or human crisis will be required to kick start a genuine action plan.
If there is one thing I have learned from reading TOD over the past few month's is that many of the energy solutions are there - too many solutions perhaps, and we lack the knowledge to be able to pick the right selection for our optimal future.
Personally I don't beleive we are past peak oil, even though UK oil production is going down the tubes. The recent down trend in Global production is in my opinion demand driven, and is a correction from an over-extended position of the last year or two. Only when demand (and price) pick up again will we know if 2005 was the peak year. My bets are on 2011 / 12.
We can see this already happening in Europe and some of the states in the US. The changes will be gradual and kickstart plans, like the mobilization of the US in WW II, will not be required.
Everyone with a home can become energy independent at the cost of 50 cents per kWh, tops. People without a home can just wait for the utility companies to raise their cost by a few cents. We might see a gas tax of up to a dollar a gallon. Big deal, not.
People will bitch and roll their eyes. Then they will discover that nobody listens and that eye-rolling hurts. They will stop both and simply pay the transition cost.
By the time our children have children the world will look different and nobody will mind the blue-grey color of solar roofs.
If we started with USA, Mexico, and Canada, it would be easier to include variables such as water supply, global warming, food production, and natural gas supply. It may also be easier to explain to legislators.
The organization is ASPO-USA, so a USA focus for at least a preliminary model might make sense.