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99 comments on More thoughts about Gazprom

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expat on October 22, 2006 - 9:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Again, I am very sure that there are a large number of Poles,  Czechs, Hungarians, and on that will be glad to talk about fairy tales from their perspective - and I don't think they will be at all sympathetic about how 'reactive' the USSR was. Unless ensuring that the Czechs or Poles couldn't be invaded again by stationing Soviet soldiers there was 'reactive' - remarkably, those soldiers never seemed to get the hint to leave, regardless of how many stones hit their tanks in various city streets, and how they responded was a pretty clear sign of what polite, invited guests they were.

As for 'standard' fairy tales - it was interesting to read at about 13 or so how the U.S. was responsible for every single weapons advance of the Cold War, with the exception of MIRVs (I think - it could have been ICBMs, though I'm pretty sure it was MIRVs). Sure, the Soviets were playing catch up in an insane arms race which ended up impoverishing vast numbers of people.

So what? It wasn't like the Stalin was motivated in his actions by the West in the 1920s or 1930s - and he quite honestly thought Hitler made him a better partner than the 'West.' Again, maybe the Poles can fill you in on the details - they tend to be fairly well informed about what happened to them over the last couple of generations.

Simply because one side in a struggle is bad doesn't mean the other side is good or less bad. I don't think the Poles thought the choice between Hitler and Stalin somehow represented a true choice at all.

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Oliver North on October 22, 2006 - 10:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hm, interesting..
I can speak only about the Czech case as part of my family is from Prague. The Commies won the democratic elections after WWII in part because there was a large segment of population leaning towards left politics prior WWII, also Russians did the large chunk of liberation of the country from nazis which wiped out the cream of the population. There was also this experience with Munich of 1938 where both UK and France "allies" betrayed their defense agreement with Czechoslovakia.

It's true when Commies were fully in power after 1948 the regime changed to authoritarian rule and especially the years before Stalin's death were pretty nasty.

Now we have a brand new brainwashed generation of US supporters not unlike the young crazy Stalinists of early 50s. Not a pretty picture given the forthcomming peakoil and increasing Russian influence in EU politics via the energy line..

Basically, current Czech politicians are seen internationally as even more devoted US interest lackeys than Poles or some of the Baltic guys.

Czechs blocked several anti US/Israel policies within the EU foreign policy structure not mentioning various anti Cuban provocations done at the UN and on other venues.

You have to dig deep into the czech psyche and history to understand they have perfected the strategy of giving up on their own program and piggybacking to the currently "winning side" on the int. scene. That's not a critique per se just an observation of the state of affairs.

In fact this might be a good survival strategy in the middle of Europe where always is someone interested in controlling or using that small country for his ends on the larger campaign..

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expat on October 23, 2006 - 1:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, the Czech woman I know best is around 60, emigrated to Canada in the earlier 1950s (aunt or ome such connection), then moved back to Czechoslovakia in the later 50s (she found Canada very, very boring). She also used to live near Bratislava until a couple of years ago. She is pretty cynical about a lot of things, but in terms of 'choosing' between East and West (and remember, she went back home) - she prefers her life today, in general. She most certainly does not miss life in 1965, 1975, or 1985.

Living in Germany, most of what I read and see is oriented to the fact that the Czechs seem very devoted to retaining their industrial base, and they do not seem to have any foreign policy ambitions on a large scale (unlike Poland, for example).

And this may also be historical - I used to work with someone who was 'German,' but was also 'Czech' (that blood line thinking is not easy for me). According to him, after 1968, the Czechs drew completely into a shell - for example, ca. 1994, he explained why there really weren't any good Czech/English dictionaries available - it was because only a few hundred people a year were allowed to study English at all after 1968.

In part, the brainwashing may have been based on not really knowing anything about the West except what was advertised.

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Oil CEO on October 23, 2006 - 6:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I have a book to recommend. But just for you, Expat. You are one of the few that can handle it. John Mosier's 'Cross of Iron.' Mosier is still very much an outcast on World War History although he is clearly one of the best. I've read all his stuff and being semi-proficient in the genre myself find his main points to be sustainable.

One of his main gigs is that Czech tanks were very good. VERY Good.

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expat on October 23, 2006 - 7:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks - book recommendations are always good.

For my part, though in many ways not a superb work, 'Ploesti: The Great Ground-Air Battle of 1 August 1943' by James Dugan, Carroll Stewart is good background for showing just how critical oil was to the basic understanding of warfare in the 1930s and 1940s in the sense of how casually the authors mention things like how every war college/war planner of note looked at the problem of conquering/destroying Ploesti, or how critical oil was to running a modern war - two generations ago.

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Oil CEO on October 23, 2006 - 7:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Max Hastings' 'Bomber Command.' A Classic if there ever was one. I confine my opinions to Hastings and Mosier. These guys are the forefront of battleground history. Thanks for the tip, I'll be checking that out.
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expat on October 23, 2006 - 8:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, it is not a great book - what impressed me upon rereading it this summer (an older edition) was just how matter of fact the central importance of oil was treated, and in setting the scene leading up to the raid. Don't miss some of the chapter quotes, especially. I assume that the facts are correct, as far as they go, of course, but some of the numbers are stunning - like the intensity of the flak installations.

Of course it was worth the time and effort to send some of America's first heavy bombers to the North African desert to strike at the only facility producing high octane fuel for German fighter planes.

And equally obvious, it was clear that making Ploesti as impossible to take out (both land and air) as possible was a top priority of the defenders.

Look at the level of planning and deception employed by both sides - war is much more than blowing things up, even when all you are trying to do is blow things up.

The first Ploesti low level raid was a massive effort - and the reason for it was oil, the most critical element in industrial warfare. I remain amazed at how many people here talk about having their eyes opened - look at what people were thinking in the decade before WWII to have a good idea of how closed many peoples' eyes are today.

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Oil CEO on October 23, 2006 - 8:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It is not a great book! Holy second opinions. I'm just glad somebody else read it. Especially you, Expat. I'm heartened by this. I spent the last hour watching Iraq videos on Youtube. I watched 'BattleGround'last night. A Decent documentary. I think Bomber Command teaches some important lessons. Your take will always reside with me.
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Oil CEO on October 23, 2006 - 8:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The best writers on WWII have always devoted part of their time to the oil issue. However, I personally don't believe oil was central to the conflict. And I have studied this. Clearly it was important, but only as an afterthought. I think this is evident both in the East and West. Oil has been projected on the conflict from the hindsight vantage point. No?
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expat on October 23, 2006 - 1:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, that was why I wrote about reading some of the information - of course, the book is about why it was so critical to risk and lose some significant percentage of America's existing heavy bombers on a daring raid against the most heavily defended target in Europe at the time, so the background and quotes can be considered cherry picking.

But truly, reading a paragraph or two written around 1930 seems more visionary in terms of the central importance of oil than most of what is written by any 'peak oiler' today - especially in light of how WWII was fought.

Quite honestly, the idea that WWII was mainly about oil does seem a stretch, though it is not easily refuted either. But then, what was WWI all about, apart from Europe being so bored it decided to slaughter itself because its leaders were completely out of touch with how the world had changed since their childhood? Sometimes, wars just seem to happen, and the reasons come later.

Another reason for an older edition is that some of the pictures are incredible - bombing a refinery at chimney height is something hard to imagine, and that someone was taking pictures is even more unimaginable.

But the book does have its moments - such as when the German in charge of defending Ploesti (who was enjoying lunch in the countryside) watches what he imagines is perfectly coordinated waves of bombers coming in from different directions which in truth was actually a colossal mistake of navigation and bad timing - you do not want to be flying over a refinery someone else has just bombed at a level below the black burning columns of smoke.

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