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44 comments on Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?

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Chris Vernon on October 17, 2006 - 2:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Top work Cry Wolf.
The UK North Sea has been declining at a rate of over 200,000 bpd for the last three years and if this were to continue then production from Buzzard would be sufficient to arrest decline for one year only. This would give rise to a shoulder on the decline curve like that seen in 2002 when the Elgin - Franklin fields came on stream. It is wishful thinking to believe that Buzzard alone will have the reservoir potential to reverse the production decline of the whole UK North Sea basin.
This is a key point. I am also of the opinion that far too much is being expected of Buzzard and that the optimistic forecasts will turn out high. It's a real problem since it is that lack of accurate information that prevents the problem being addressed. In a few years time there'll be shock and amazement at the unexpected decline. Unfortunately shock and amazement won't do much for the economy. Exactly the same happened in the years after the '99 peak, it came out of the blue - officially!
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Euan Mearns on October 17, 2006 - 2:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Chris, one of the big ironies is that the NPD and DTI publish as much accurate information as anyone could ever want to have.  It is what they do with that information themselves and the official face given to the information that is part of the problem.
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